Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania

Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Kozicka, Marta; Pfeifer, Catherine; Jones, Sarah K.; Tran, Nhuong; Chan, Chin Yee; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gotor, Elisabetta; Rich, Karl M.

doi:10.1007/s10113-023-02038-x

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 56 publications

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“…Barnes et al ( 50 ) use multilevel network modeling to identify aspects of social organization that influence responses to climate change among Papua New Guinea islanders. Enahoro et al ( 51 ) link agricultural and food system models in an integrated assessment framework to show how diversified farming practices minimize losses in ecosystem services. Mayfield et al ( 52 ), using air pollution, climate, and employment impact modeling, are able to identify spatial differences in the economic and environmental effects of the shale gas boom in the United States.…”

Section: Methods and Advances In Modeling For Sustainability Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Selin,

Giang,

Clark

2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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This Perspective evaluates recent progress in modeling nature–society systems to inform sustainable development. We argue that recent work has begun to address longstanding and often-cited challenges in bringing modeling to bear on problems of sustainable development. For each of four stages of modeling practice—defining purpose, selecting components, analyzing interactions, and assessing interventions—we highlight examples of dynamical modeling methods and advances in their application that have improved understanding and begun to inform action. Because many of these methods and associated advances have focused on particular sectors and places, their potential to inform key open questions in the field of sustainability science is often underappreciated. We discuss how application of such methods helps researchers interested in harnessing insights into specific sectors and locations to address human well-being, focus on sustainability-relevant timescales, and attend to power differentials among actors. In parallel, application of these modeling methods is helping to advance theory of nature–society systems by enhancing the uptake and utility of frameworks, clarifying key concepts through more rigorous definitions, and informing development of archetypes that can assist hypothesis development and testing. We conclude by suggesting ways to further leverage emerging modeling methods in the context of sustainability science.

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Section: Methods and Advances In Modeling For Sustainability Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Selin,

Giang,

Clark

2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Key factors affecting NH3-N in the Huaihe River Basin due to human activities

Xi,

Liu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Environ Geochem Health

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African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts

De Vos,

Janssens,

Jacobs

et al. 2024

Nat Sustain

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The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biodiversity losses but are often overlooked. Moreover, impacts of dietary changes associated with urbanization are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially explicit projections of African urban area expansion with observed rice consumption shifts to inform a partial equilibrium model (the Global Biosphere Management Model). We demonstrate the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues until 2050 and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We identify that because of agricultural displacement, the impact of urban area expansion on food production losses is probably limited (<1%)—at the cost of additional losses of natural lands by 2050 (up to 2 Mt). We also show that considering dietary shifts associated with urbanization increases rice consumption, production (+8.0%), trade (up to +2 Mt of required import) and agricultural methane emissions (up to +12 MtCO2-equivalent yr–1), thereby underscoring the need for a systems approach in future sustainability studies.

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Linking ecosystem services provisioning with demand for animal-sourced food: an integrated modeling study for Tanzania

Cited by 3 publications

References 56 publications

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Key factors affecting NH3-N in the Huaihe River Basin due to human activities

African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts

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