Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Abstract

This Perspective evaluates recent progress in modeling nature–society systems to inform sustainable development. We argue that recent work has begun to address longstanding and often-cited challenges in bringing modeling to bear on problems of sustainable development. For each of four stages of modeling practice—defining purpose, selecting components, analyzing interactions, and assessing interventions—we highlight examples of dynamical modeling methods and advances in their application that have improved understanding and begun to inform action. Because many of these methods and associated advances have focused on particular sectors and places, their potential to inform key open questions in the field of sustainability science is often underappreciated. We discuss how application of such methods helps researchers interested in harnessing insights into specific sectors and locations to address human well-being, focus on sustainability-relevant timescales, and attend to power differentials among actors. In parallel, application of these modeling methods is helping to advance theory of nature–society systems by enhancing the uptake and utility of frameworks, clarifying key concepts through more rigorous definitions, and informing development of archetypes that can assist hypothesis development and testing. We conclude by suggesting ways to further leverage emerging modeling methods in the context of sustainability science.

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

“…Below, we give examples from throughout the modeling process of meaningful engagement (or lack thereof) with all three dimensions of equity. Although the modeling process has been represented in many ways, we adapt the four stages described in Selin et al ( 8 ) for modeling of dynamic systems as a framework for our discussion: identifying participants and defining model purpose; selecting modeled components; analyzing interactions; and assessing interventions. We draw examples from topical case studies of nature–society sub-systems (i.e., water, energy, air quality, conservation), which are introduced in full in SI Appendix , section S2 and summarized in Fig.…”

“…When models are applied to “simulat[e] dynamics related to the long-term behavior of systems” ( 8 ), how can they be used to illuminate how equity considerations evolve through interactions of components across time and space? Processes that drive, reinforce, and reduce inequity in nature–society systems are dynamically complex, including path-dependencies, cascading impacts, and feedbacks–and these processes are not always well-represented in models.…”

“…To what extent have models of nature-society systems used to inform sustainable development supported the aim of equity, and what opportunities exist for improvement? Computational models are a core tool for exploring collective understanding of, and assessing interventions for, complex nature–society systems ( 8 , 9 ). Models of these dynamic systems—often, though not exclusively, mechanistic models—are frequently used to consolidate knowledge about a system into a single representation which is then used to predict system behavior ( 10 ).…”

Showcasing advances and building community in modeling for sustainability

“…An opening Perspective by Selin et al ( 15 ) gives an overview of recent progress in this area, arguing that recent work has begun to address longstanding and often-cited challenges in bringing modeling to bear on problems of sustainable development. The paper draws on submissions from workshop participants of key examples of excellent work in their respective fields and collective discussions among Special Feature contributors.…”