Linking economic growth pathways and environmental sustainability by understanding development as alternate social–ecological regimes

Abstract

Scientists understand how global ecological degradation is occurring but not why it seems to be so difficult to reverse. We used national-level data and a mathematical model to provide an empirical test of the hypothesis that national economies display two distinct economic regimes that are maintained by self-reinforcing feedbacks between natural resources and society. Our results not only support previous findings that two distinct groups exist, but also show that countries move toward one of these two different equilibrium points because of their different patterns of natural resource use and responses to population growth. At the less economically developed equilibrium point maintained by "green-loop" feedbacks, human populations depend more directly on ecosystems for income. At the more economically developed equilibrium point maintained by "red-loop" feedbacks, nonecosystem services (e.g., technology, manufacturing, services) generate the majority of national gross domestic product (GDP), but increasing consumption of natural resources means that environmental impacts are higher and are often exported (via cross-scale feedbacks) to other countries. Feedbacks between income and population growth are pushing countries farther from sustainability. Our analysis shows that economic growth alone cannot lead to environmental sustainability and that current trajectories of resource use cannot be sustained without breaking feedback loops in national and international economies.

Should I stay or should I go? The emergence of partitioned land use among human foragers

“…Conversely, our argument for territoriality would imply a fundamental regime shift in the relationship between population growth, carrying capacity and land use. Detecting regime shifts in empirical time-series is a growing area of research and a key to distinguishing between these two scenarios [51–53].…”

Prominent Influence of Socioeconomic and Governance Factors on the Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus in sub‐Saharan Africa

“…The case of South Africa highlights, however, that increases in GDP are also associated with higher demand for FEW resources (Sušnik, 2015(Sušnik, , 2018. Given climate change impacts on FEW resources, explicit attention is needed to ensure that economic growth pathways incorporate environmental sustainability in SSA (Cumming & von Cramon-Taubadel, 2018).…”

Integrating Key Insights of Sociological Risk Theory into the Ecosystem Services Framework

“…The 'second modernity' is characterized by increasing globalization and "detraditionalization" [101] (p. 129). This societal development towards the decoupling of production and consumption is also discussed by scientists in the ES research field, but without the focus on risks [59,102,103]. In the context of ES supply, globalization generates a geographical and temporal decoupling of behavior and possible risks (e.g., air pollution in another part of the world due to the relocation of production).…”