Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS) Model: Technical documentation

Aragie, Emerta; Beyene, Seneshaw Tamiru; Legesse, Ermias Engida; Thurlow, James

doi:10.2499/p15738coll2.134330

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…DEMETRA is a development of the STAGE_DEV model (Aragie et al, 2016) further refined in Boulanger et al (2020). It inherits additional behavioural relationships to account for economic relationships in developing countries, such as the dual role of semi‐subsistent agricultural households, a nested consumption function, the endogeneity of the functional distribution of income, domestic migration, and factor market segmentation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID‐19 pandemic in Ethiopia: Socioeconomic impacts and government recovery measures

Nechifor,

Boysen,

Ferrari

et al. 2024

South African J Economics

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The study assesses the implications of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the government responses for the economic performance and poverty incidence in Ethiopia for the fiscal years of 2019/20 and 2020/21. It accounts for the impacts of the pandemic on factor productivity, trade costs, export demand, tourism, remittances and foreign direct investment (FDI). An economy‐wide multi‐sectoral model determines impacts at macroeconomic, sectoral, and household levels. A poverty analysis module characterises the effects of the pandemic on food poverty headcount, gap, and severity. Results show that the COVID‐19 impacts could have been significant across all macroeconomic metrics had the government not intervened through fiscal and spending measures. However, much of the recovery through government intervention was driven by agricultural and food processing sectors while output in manufacturing, construction and services sectors continued to be negatively affected. Without government intervention, the food poverty headcount would have increased by about five percentage points. The government measures have mitigated that effect allowing food poverty to reach pre‐COVID‐19 values in 2020/21. Nevertheless, with all measures combined, poor urban households may have been left behind and would require more targeted support to compensate for a significant loss of income.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID‐19 pandemic in Ethiopia: Socioeconomic impacts and government recovery measures

Nechifor,

Boysen,

Ferrari

et al. 2024

South African J Economics

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“…The unit cost and productivity effects of individual livestock-sector interventions are determined using a newly developed Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS)-lite framework (see Aragie et al 2021 for an advanced version of LEAS). This framework considers the underlying structure of Rwanda's livestock sector, focusing on cattle.…”

Section: Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling

Aragie¹,

Diao²,

Spielman³

et al. 2022

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Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model

Aragie,

Thurlow

2024

Anim. Prod. Sci.

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Context The livestock sector is undergoing rapid changes, and governments are designing sector development plans to account for this transition. However, the fundamental assumptions behind the medium- to long-term growth strategies of the sector should be looked at from the perspective of the dynamics in the domestic and global economy, and uncertainties around the driving forces of the transition. Aims This study used the case of Ethiopia to provide a scenario-based analysis of alternative national development trajectories, focusing on the prospects of growth performance, urbanisation, and their potential implications on the cattle system within the country. Methods We employed a newly developed linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model where the livestock, economy-wide, and microsimulation subsystems are linked either way through flows of information. Key results Our findings suggested that demand for animal-source food (ASF) is highly dependent on economic-demographic changes and that income growth is the primary driver of overall livestock-system expansion. Additionally, urbanisation shifts the outputs of the livestock systems towards processed ASF products. Conclusion The analysis showed that livestock development plans should reflect the economic reality and potential risks facing the economic system. Herd offtake and livestock sector output vary considerably with assumptions about future growth and urbanisation trajectories. Implications In addition to relevant findings about the implications of the interplays between the economic and demographic variables, the study generated insights into the role of integrating economy-wide and livestock-system models to provide a risk-based approach to the prospects of the livestock sector.

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Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS) Model: Technical documentation

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

COVID‐19 pandemic in Ethiopia: Socioeconomic impacts and government recovery measures

COVID‐19 pandemic in Ethiopia: Socioeconomic impacts and government recovery measures

Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling

Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model

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