Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling

Aragie, Emerta; Diao, Xinshen; Spielman, David J.; Thurlow, James; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Benimana, Gilberthe

doi:10.2499/p15738coll2.135045

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The investment module is added to the CGE model, which is similar to the AIDA Module in the RIAPA model developed by IFPRI (Aragie et al, 2022). The impact of agricultural public investments on production, consumption, trade and the national economy are simulated through total factor productivity (TFP).…”

Section: Caer 162mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the government accounts, if public spending increases, either government savings decrease or fiscal deficits rise. The exchange rate is endogenous to balance the payments account, and international market outflows are regulated by the changes in the exchange rate.(4) The investment module.The investment module is added to the CGE model, which is similar to the AIDA Module in the RIAPA model developed by IFPRI (Aragie et al. , 2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The investment module is added to the CGE model, which is similar to the AIDA Module in the RIAPA model developed by IFPRI (Aragie et al. , 2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The multiple effects of farmland infrastructure investment on agrifood systems in China—an interdisciplinary model analysis

Zhang,

Lei,

Lan

et al. 2024

CAER

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PurposeAs one of its major strategies, China has made a new plan to further expand High Standard Farmland (HSF) to all permanent basic farmland (80% of total farmland) for grain security over the next decade. Yet, what will be the impact of farmland infrastructure investment on agrifood systems? The paper aims to systematically evaluate the multiple effects (food security, economy, nutrition and environment) of expanding HSF construction under the context of the “Big Food vision” using an interdisciplinary model.Design/methodology/approachAn interdisciplinary model – AgriFood Systems Model, which links the China CGE model to diet and carbon emission modules, is applied to assess the multiple effects of HSF construction on agrifood systems, such as food security and economic development, residents’ diet quality and carbon emissions. Several policy scenarios are designed to capture these effects of the past HSF investment based on counterfactual analysis and compare the effects of HSF future investment at the national level under the conditions of different land use policies – restricting to grain crops or allowing diversification (like vegetables, and fruit).FindingsThe investments in HSF offer a promising solution for addressing the challenges of food and nutrition security, economic development and environmental sustainability. Without HSF construction, grain production and self-sufficiency would decline significantly, while the agricultural and agrifood systems’ GDP would decrease. The future investment in the HSF construction will further increase both grain production and GDP, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions. Compared with the policy of limiting HSF to planting grains, diversified planting can provide a more profitable economic return, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions.Originality/valueThis study contributes to better informing the impact of land infrastructure expanding investment on the agrifood systems from multiple dimensions based on an interdisciplinary model. We suggest that the government consider applying diversified planting in the future HSF investment to meet nutritional and health demands, increase household income and reduce carbon emissions.

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Section: Caer 162mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%