Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

L’Heureux, Michelle; Collins, Dan C.; Hu, Zeng‐Zhen

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1331-2

Cited by 100 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Finally, increased SST associated with climate change might have gradually modulated ENSO's behaviour [25][26][27] , predictability 4 and impacts on the yields. We also note that further assessment is needed for the impacts on yields because of other major climate modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole 28,29 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

et al. 2014

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The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1-5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by À 4.3 to þ 0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal ( À 4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

et al. 2014

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“…These distributions of ENSO classes are closely related to the long‐term trend of the CTM under global warming. In addition, although some studies suggested that the third EOF mode (EOF3) of the tropical Pacific SSTA can well represent the Modoki mode (e.g., L'Heureux et al, ), the EOF3 mode only accounts for 64% of the Modoki variance. It is also noted that the composite SSTA for the combinations of the EOF3 mode and ENSO (not shown) is different from the composite SSTA for the combinations of the CTM and ENSO (Figure ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

Zhang

et al. 2017

JGR Oceans

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The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air‐sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP‐El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP‐El Niño under global warming.

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“…One might hypothesize that the zonal structure of the temperature trend is due to aliasing of an ENSO signal, as ENSO clearly impacts temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere [ Kiladis et al , ; Calvo Fernández et al , ; Scherllin‐Pirscher et al , ; Garfinkel et al , ]. Scaife et al [] further argue that El Niño frequency has increased (a more recent discussion of changes in Pacific Ocean SSTs and ENSO frequency can be found in L'Heureux et al [], Luo et al [], and Sohn et al []), and thus SST changes may have led to warmer cold‐point temperatures. The present study suggests that trends in ENSO frequency have not caused the trends in the cold‐point temperatures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

et al. 2013

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[1] Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO 2 , ozone, and methane.

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Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Cited by 100 publications

References 50 publications

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

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