Limited Influence of Localized Tropical Sea‐Surface Temperatures on Moisture Transport into the Arctic

Dunn‐Sigouin, Etienne; Li, Camille; Kushner, Paul J.

doi:10.1029/2020gl091540

Geophysical Research Letters

2021

DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091540

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Limited Influence of Localized Tropical Sea‐Surface Temperatures on Moisture Transport into the Arctic

Etienne Dunn‐Sigouin

Camille Li

Paul J. Kushner

Abstract: moisture transport is dominated by transient planetary waves in aquaplanet model driven by zonally uniform boundary conditions • Tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies affect Arctic moisture transport mostly via changes in water vapor 10 • Localized tropical perturbations alter Arctic moisture transport more than uni-11 form perturbations for cooling but not warming 12

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Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 59 publications

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“…As shown by Siew et al (2020) the above described relation between sea ice reduction over the Barents and Kara seas and more frequent and persistent Ural blocking is of intermittent character. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of Ural blockings is related to atmospheric internal variability and may be triggered by both stationary and transient Rossby waves from the tropics (Dunn-Sigouin et al, 2021;Woollings et al, 2023) with distinct roles of stationary waves and transient waves or eddies for the meridional energy transport into the Arctic (Graversen & Burtu, 2016;Sang et al, 2022).…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6

Galytska,

Weigel,

Handorf

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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To analyse links among key processes that contribute to Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as causal graphs. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations during 1980‐2021. Observations show several robust connections from early to late winter, such as atmospheric blocking within central Asia via the Ural blocking and Siberian High, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase and the polar vortex. The polar vortex is affected by poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which is also directly connected with the Aleutian Low. We then evaluate climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by comparing their causal graphs with those derived from observations. Compared to observations, CMIP6 historical and future simulations do not robustly capture Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections arising from Arctic sea ice variability. This highlights the role of atmospheric internal variability in modulating the Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections. However, we find several distinct patterns that are simulated by most of the analyzed climate models. For example, both historical and future model simulations robustly capture observed atmospheric blocking in central Asia. But contrary to observations, model simulations show a robust link between the Arctic temperature and sea ice cover over Barents and Kara seas. The analysis of future changes also reveals that the connection between the Aleutian Low and the poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa is expected to become more robust towards the end of the 21st century than in the analysed past.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6

Galytska,

Weigel,

Handorf

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Influence of the preceding August-September-October tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific on the following spring sea ice in the Beaufort Sea: the bridging role of El Niño

Ye,

Li,

Huang

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms

Previdi

Smith

Polvani

2021

Environ. Res. Lett.

193

135

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Arctic amplification (AA)—referring to the enhancement of near-surface air temperature change over the Arctic relative to lower latitudes—is a prominent feature of climate change with important impacts on human and natural systems. In this review, we synthesize current understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms that can give rise to AA. These mechanisms include both local feedbacks and changes in poleward energy transport. Temperature and sea ice-related feedbacks are especially important for AA, since they are significantly more positive over the Arctic than at lower latitudes. Changes in energy transport by the atmosphere and ocean can also contribute to AA. These energy transport changes are tightly coupled with local feedbacks, and thus their respective contributions to AA should not be considered in isolation. It is here emphasized that the feedbacks and energy transport changes that give rise to AA are sensitively dependent on the state of the climate system itself. This implies that changes in the climate state will lead to changes in the strength of AA, with implications for past and future climate change.

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Limited Influence of Localized Tropical Sea‐Surface Temperatures on Moisture Transport into the Arctic

Cited by 5 publications

References 59 publications

Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6

Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6

Influence of the preceding August-September-October tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific on the following spring sea ice in the Beaufort Sea: the bridging role of El Niño

Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms

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