Arctic amplification of climate change: a review of underlying mechanisms

Previdi, Michael; Smith, Kay; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1c29

Cited by 228 publications

(173 citation statements)

References 257 publications

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“…Many studies have emphasized the role of local feedback processes e.g., Goosse et al (2018), Stuecker et al (2018), Beer et al (2020), Feldl et al (2020), Chung et al (2021), of heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes e.g., Hwang et al (2011), Graversen and Burtu (2016), Gong et al (2017), Yang and Magnusdottir (2017), Yoshimori et al (2017), Graversen and Langen (2019), or even of biological processes e.g., Swann et al (2010), Park et al (2015Park et al ( , 2020, Pefanis et al (2020). However, much uncertainty remains as to the relative contributions from the many proposed mechanisms (Previdi et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stronger Arctic amplification from ozone-depleting substances than from carbon dioxide

Liang

Polvani

Previdi

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Arctic amplification (AA) - the greater warming of the Arctic near-surface temperature relative to its global mean value - is a prominent feature of the climate response to increasing greenhouse gases. Recent work has revealed the importance of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in contributing to Arctic warming and sea-ice loss. Here, using ensembles of climate model integrations, we expand on that work and directly contrast Arctic warming from ODS to that from carbon dioxide (CO$_2$), over the 1955-2005 period when ODS loading peaked. We find that the Arctic warming and sea-ice loss from ODS are slightly more than half (52-59\%) those from CO$_2$. We further show that the strength of AA for ODS is 1.44 times larger than that for CO$_2$, and that this mainly stems from more positive Planck, albedo, lapse-rate, and cloud feedbacks. Our results suggest that AA would be considerably stronger than presently observed had the Montreal Protocol not been signed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stronger Arctic amplification from ozone-depleting substances than from carbon dioxide

Liang

Polvani

Previdi

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Arctic amplification (AA)-referring to the enhancement of near-surface air temperature change over the Arctic relative to lower latitudes-is a prominent feature of climate change with important impacts on human and natural systems [1]. The strong amplification of global warming in the Arctic has accelerated the thaw rate of the permafrost [2] and fire activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rare and Extreme Wildland Fire in Sakha in 2021

Hayasaka

2021

Atmosphere

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A large-scale wildland fire occurred in Sakha in 2021. The results of fire analysis showed that the total number of hotspots in 2021 exceeded 267,000. This is about 5.8 times the average number of fires over the last 19 years since 2002. The largest daily number of hotspots in 2021 was 16,226, detected on 2 August. On 7 August, about half of the daily hotspots (52.6% = 8175/15,537 × 100) were detected in a highest fire density area (HFA, 62.5–65° N, 125–130° E) near Yakutsk under strong southeasterly wind (wind velocity about 12 m/s (43 km/h)). The results of weather analysis using various weather maps are as follows: The large meandering westerlies due to stagnant low-pressure systems in the Barents Sea brought high-pressure systems and warm air masses from the south to high latitudes, creating warm, dry conditions that are favorable conditions for fire. In addition to these, strong southeasterly winds at lower air levels blew which were related to the development of high-pressure systems in the Arctic Ocean. The HFA was located in the strong wind region (>8 m/s) of the v-wind map. The record-breaking Sakha fire season of 2021 is an example of extreme phenomena wrought by rapid climate change.

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“…As summarized in Previdi et al. (2021) and P. C. Taylor et al. (2022), local CO 2 forcing and other positive feedbacks in the Earth system contribute to Arctic amplification, such as from increases in atmosphere‐ocean poleward energy transport, changes in clouds and water vapor, the ice‐albedo feedback, Planck and lapse rate feedbacks, and other radiative energy imbalances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%