“…We are interested in the setup, where one was able to obtain an estimate,
, of
either from the literature or from historical control data. The latter situation received some interest recently (Branders et al.,
2021; Glynn et al.,
2012; Schuler et al.,
2021; Wyss et al.,
2014). Assuming one has access to data from past trials on the same outcome Y and covariates
for control patients,
, many statistical and machine learning procedures, for example, random forests and neural networks, can be used to estimate the prognostic score function from the conditional mean
(with some estimate
of the model's intercept parameter).…”