Less than 2 °C? An Economic-Environmental Evaluation of the Paris Agreement

Abstract

The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies the variation in emissions that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will entail and their financial allocation and policies country-by-country and regionally. The objective is evaluating the Paris Agreement feasibility regarding the INDCs and, economic and environmental constraints. The criteria through which the 161 INDCs are analysed are as follows: i/ socioeconomic impact of the transition; ii/ focus on energy management; iii/ substitution of non-renewable sources; iv/ the role of technology; v/ equality of the transition; vi/ compliance with emission reductions. The results obtained show that the Paris Agreement excessively relies on external financial support (41.4%). Moreover, its unilateralist approach, the socioeconomic and biophysical constraints could be the underlying cause of the ineffectiveness of the 2ºC objective. This way, each country would emit an average of 37.8% more than in the years 2005-2015. When this is weighted, the figure would be a 19.3% increase, due mainly to the increases in China and India. These figures would lead the temperatures up to 3º-4ºC.

Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios

“…In addition, the economy is usually pictured as a monolithic energy-consuming machine, ignoring its complex sectoral structure and highly disaggregated decision-making. Although it is well known that energy resources are the key factor in low-carbon transitions, plans and international agreements do not usually take into consideration the aforementioned biophysical limits; something which could challenge their feasibility (McGlade and Ekins, 2015;Moriarty and Honnery, 2016;Spash, 2016;Nieto, Carpintero and Miguel, 2018). Therefore, in this paper, we argue that IAMs might be undervaluing the supply constraints of energy resources and the importance of the economic structure in low-carbon transitions.…”

“…This agreement established as its main objective to "hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 o C above pre-industrial levels". Despite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stating that, in order to avoid surpassing the 2ºC threshold, carbon emissions would have to be reduced between 41% and 72% by 2050 with respect to 2010 (IPCC, 2014), the Paris Agreement commitments deliver net increases, until at least (Rogelj et al, 2016;Raftery et al, 2017;Nieto, Carpintero and Miguel, 2018). Given the close relationship between emissions and energy consumption, any assessment of the economy's capacity to meet climate goals requires strong Energy-Economy-Environment (EEE) models, within the broader definition of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).…”

PV Module Monitoring System Based on Low-Cost Solutions: Wireless Raspberry Application and Assessment

“…These initiatives aim to limit climate change and lead to a decarbonized energy system [1]. Indeed, the deployment of renewables and energy efficiency are considered key agents to fulfilling emission reductions and conforming to the Paris Agreement objectives [2]. In addition, this general situation, combined with the rapid cost decrease of renewable technologies (mainly photovoltaic (PV) installations-the price of solar PV modules was reduced by around 85% from 2010 to 2015 [3]), has promoted the rise of renewable-solution deployment and investment.…”

Forest income and inequality in Kampong Thom province, Cambodia: Gini decomposition analysis

“…Consequently, significant global resolutions have called for attention to climate change to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and manage forests sustainably. Examples include; 1) UNFCCC (UN 1992;Park et al 2013); 2) the adoption of the Paris Agreement (UN 2015a;Bretschger et al 2018;Nieto et al 2018 Under SDG15, the State Parties agreed to protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss (UN 2015c). This requires them to implement policies and national plans of action, build capacity and arrange their national institutions accordingly.…”