Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

Abstract

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

Global and regional drivers of power plant CO2 emissions over the last three decades

“…However, for the long-term future, in most scenarios, accomplishing a global transition to energy systems with net-zero emissions may require a large share of renewable electricity (i.e., solar and wind resources) [70][71][72]. Developing countries could switch directly from coal power to renewables rather than using natural gas or other fossil fuel given the rapid decrease in renewable electricity costs and the pressure of rapid transitions [73][74][75]. The expansion of renewables will thus likely represent an increasingly significant factor driving future emission reductions in the power sector, which could be captured and evaluated using our data-driven assessment in future.…”

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

“…NREL (2021) conducted scenarios-based capacity expansion modeling to assess when, where and how much energy storage can be cost-effectively deployed in India through 2050, but the report does not take into account impact of demand side resources [4]. Additionally, Deshmukh et al showed that various scenarios of renewable capacity (200 to 600 GW) are operationally feasible for the Indian grid, and minimize emissions [25].…”

“…India's construction times for coal plants have typically been higher than the world average owing to issues such as water supply 24 and coal linkage. Figure 8 plots the average number of months to COD from the date of financial closure and award of letter of intent for select thermal plants 25 built over the last decade. 26 On average, it took 5.5 years after financial closure for these plants to start commercial operations.…”

“…24 Coal plants account for fresh water consumption equivalent to a fifth of India's entire domestic consumption; 40% of existing coal plants are in water-stressed areas [69]. 25 Recent coal plants with data available for all units were selected. Several other plants have taken significantly longer to build.…”

Enhancing grid flexibility under scenarios of a renewable-dominant power system in China

“…4,5 Overcoming the operational challenges of integrating higher penetrations of renewable energy into the grid requires changes in operations, markets, and investment planning. Existing research on addressing renewable variability and promoting renewable integration for U.S. European and Indian power systems has focused on several main roadmaps, [6][7][8] including transmission, 9 larger balancing area, [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] storage, [18][19] demand response, [20][21][22] power system operation, electricity market design, 23,24 grid exibility, 8,25 and integrating supply-load transmissions. 26 While several studies assess the overall potential of power system decarbonization in China, very few examine the key operational-level details and challenges.…”