Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020

Gregory, Gabriel A; Zhu, Lin; Hayen, Andrew; Bell, Katy J.L.

doi:10.1093/ije/dyac032

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…The estimated excess mortality in Korea was -29,124 (-55 per 100,000 persons). The O/E ratio was 0.91, which is lower than that in Australia (0.96) [ 26 ] or Japan (0.98) [ 27 ], despite the difficulty in undertaking a direct comparison due to methodological differences. Region had little effect on excess mortality in 2020.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Inequitable distribution of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea, 2020

Kim¹,

Kim²,

Park³

et al. 2022

Epidemiol Health

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Background: This study analyzed the inequities of excess mortality according to the region and socioeconomic division to explain the distribution of excess mortality in South Korea in 2020. Methods and Results:We acquired weekly all-cause mortality data from Jan 2015 to Dec 2020: (i) the National Health Insurance Database and (ii) Vital Statistics. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing the weekly observed deaths with expected deaths from the same period (2015-2019) using Quasi-Poisson regression. The inequitable distribution of excess mortality was also identified. The estimated excess mortality in South Korea was −29,112 (95% CI −29,832 to −28,391) and −55 per 100,000, and the ratio of observed deaths to expected deaths was 0.91. Negative excess mortality was observed except for women in the 0-14 age group. In the socioeconomic dimension, the male Medicaid beneficiary group showed positive excess mortality, while the non-disabled and disabled group showed similar negative values. When the standardized mortality ratio was calculated for the top 10 causes of death, deaths from Alzheimer's disease and septicemia increased, whereas those from diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular disease decreased. The increase in life expectancy was primarily concentrated in older adults, and the life expectancy of young women declined due to increased intentional self-harm. Conclusions:This study adds essential evidence on the overall performance of South Korea.Inequalities according to various socioeconomic variables indicate that the results of strict measures to control COVID-19 are not distributed equitably. Efforts should be made to properly evaluate the current and future problem related to the pandemic.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Inequitable distribution of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea, 2020

Kim¹,

Kim²,

Park³

et al. 2022

Epidemiol Health

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“…In Australia, wherein no major COVID-19 pandemic wave was registered in 2020, ADRD-related deaths decreased by 5% compared with the expected numbers obtained from the 2015–19 time series. 29 In the USA, the excess in age-standardized mortality rates for AD in 2020 was 8.7% more compared with 2019 with differences across ethnic groups. 30 Other studies reporting an excess in ADRD-related deaths did not include all data from 2020 and were limited to the first pandemic wave; Grande et al 7 reported a +13.9% excess (March–April) in Italy and Wu et al 8 reported an excess of +28% (March–June) in England and Wales.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Veneto Region dementia-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: multiple causes of death and time series analysis

Basso¹,

Amidei²,

Casotto³

et al. 2023

European Journal of Public Health

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Background Older individuals with dementia have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a lack of in-depth evaluation of mortality trends using both the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and the multiple causes of death (MCOD) approaches. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dementia-related deaths considering comorbidities and the place of death. Methods This retrospective, population-based study was conducted in Veneto, Italy. All the death certificates of individuals aged ≥65 years issued from 2008 to 2020 were analyzed for dementia-related mortality using age-standardized sex-stratified rates of dementia as UCOD and MCOD. Excess in monthly dementia-related mortality in 2020 was estimated by applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Results Overall, 70 301 death certificates reported dementia (MCOD proportional mortality: 12.9%), and 37 604 cases identified it as UCOD (proportional mortality: 6.9%). In 2020, the MCOD proportional mortality increased to 14.3% whereas that of UCOD remained static (7.0%). Compared to the SARIMA prediction, MCOD increased by 15.5% in males and 18.3% in females in 2020. Compared to the 2018–19 average, deaths in nursing homes increased by 32% in 2020, at home by 26% and in hospitals by 12%. Conclusions An increase in dementia-related mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic could only be detected using the MCOD approach. MCOD proved to be more robust, and hence, should be included in future analyses. Nursing homes appeared to be the most critical setting which should guide establishing protective measures for similar situations.

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“…In the international literature, analyses of mortality by cause of death in 2020 remain limited. However, the observations show differences between countries 31,32,33 . Unlike France, most countries report an increase in mortality for diseases of the circulatory system in 2020.…”

Section: Another French Exceptionmentioning

confidence: 90%

What the analysis of causes of death in France in 2020 reveals about the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic

Toubiana¹,

Mucchielli

Bouaud

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Context: In 2020, the French population lived under the threat of the Covid-19 epidemic, which would allegedly cause an exceptional excess mortality rate. Mortality data by cause of death for the year 2020 are now available. These data allow us to quantify and qualify the impact of the epidemic. This analysis presents the evolution of the main mortality indicators by cause and by age group. It is intended to demonstrate how 2020 was an exceptional year. Materials and methods: In France, causes of death are labeled according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) based on medical death certificates. The study focuses on aggregated data for the year 2020 as well as complete data from 1979 to 2017 available online. To estimate excess mortality by cause of death, mortality data were standardized to 2020 to take into account changes in the age structure of the population. Results: The year 2020 is marked, on the one hand, by the introduction of "Covid-19" as a cause of death, which accounts for 10.4% of deaths; and, on the other hand, by a strong downward trend in most other causes of death. Discussion: In 2020, we show that the overall number of additional deaths due to the Covid-19 epidemic is paradoxically lower than the number of deaths caused by this disease. According to official sources, the number of Covid-19-labeled deaths is nearly 50% higher than the number of additional deaths. Besides excess mortality in 2020 being modest compared to other years that saw health events and it affecting only individuals over 65 years of age, what could explain that this disease has caused more deaths than additional deaths? This analysis shows that the emergency implementation of the "Covid-19" classification led to many biases. A significant number of deaths, usually labeled for other major causes (e.g., neoplasm, circulatory system diseases) were, in a way, transferred to this new label. This analysis of mortality by cause of death provides quantitative answers to the overestimation of the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic in France.

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Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020

Cited by 12 publications

References 34 publications

Inequitable distribution of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea, 2020

Inequitable distribution of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea, 2020

Veneto Region dementia-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: multiple causes of death and time series analysis

What the analysis of causes of death in France in 2020 reveals about the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic

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