Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

Abstract

Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy.

Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

“…The approach has not always been effective, and there are examples where reliance on a single source of authoritative advice has been associated with high profile failures, such as Dutch elm disease in Britain [18].…”

“…Declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services, in turn, often result in lower human well-being [13,14]. Cultural services too have been adversely affected by invasive plant pathogens: Phytophthora ramorum is ravaging historic gardens [15,16], and Dutch elm disease has changed the landscape in much of Europe [17,18].…”

Sustainable Management of Plant Quarantine Pests: The Case of Olive Quick Decline Syndrome

“…Starting from Renn's notion on risk governance [111], Mills et al [8] showed that plant health policy is often a technocratic model, with policy decisions traditionally based predominantly on advice from scientific analysis of pest risk [112]. However, this approach relies on a single source of authoritative advice having been associated with significant failures, such as control of Dutch elm disease in UK [10].…”

Evolving symbioses between insects and fungi that kill trees in Canada: new threats associated with invasive organisms

“…Also, the networks and resources that these programmes have developed could be used to raise the awareness of other devastating invasive species, such as the emerald ash borer, which is currently present only in Ontario and Québec. If we can learn from this invasive organism, using techniques such as retrospective analysis, as conducted in the United Kingdom where researchers studied the Dutch elm disease outbreak of the 1970s to inform contemporary biosecurity policy (Potter et al 2011), and if we use existing outreach networks to prevent the spread of other invasive pests, perhaps other species of trees in Canada will have a better chance of survival.…”