Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab Spring

Bamert, Justus; Gilardi, Fabrizio; Wasserfallen, Fabio

doi:10.1177/2053168015593306

Cited by 30 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…As regards the Arab Spring, Brancati and Lucardi (p. 2376; appendix 106-7) do not even find a clustering of protests and therefore rule out diffusion. But another statistical analysis uncovers strong demonstration effects in 2011 (Bamert, Gilardi, and Wasserfallen 2015). One reason for these positive results is that like most studies of the Arab Spring, this investigation considers a much larger list of cases of protest (Bamer, Gilardi, and Wasserfallen 2015, 4; see also Spitzberg et al 2013, 105;Steinert-Threlkeld 2017, 383).…”

Section: Questions and Doubtsmentioning

confidence: 82%

Why Some Democracy Protests Do Diffuse

Weyland

2019

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Dawn Brancati and Adrián Lucardi offer a bold challenge to the conventional wisdom in democratization research, which since Samuel Huntington's seminal analysis of The Third Wave (1991) has highlighted diffusion processes as important contributors to (attempts at) political regime change. By contrast to a wealth of research that has demonstrated contagion and demonstration effects (Beissinger 2007; Brinks and Coppedge 2006; Gleditsch and Ward 2006; Torfason and Ingram 2010; Wejnert 2014), the authors provocatively argue that democracy protests-contention guided primarily by the quest for democratization-do not significantly spread among neighboring countries. A battery of statistical investigations that tests for a broad set of model specifications finds weak and highly inconsistent results, casting serious doubts on diffusion arguments. With their spirited criticism, Brancati and Lucardi usefully point to several problems in diffusion research. Almost by definition, this literature tends to have a skewed focus on instances in which diffusion occurs; nondiffusion, by contrast, tends to be off the agenda. Moreover, these writings tend to highlight contagion and demonstration effects but pay less attention to deterrent effects, which can be equally if not more powerful-and forestall a wave of replication efforts. By pointing to these issues, Brancati and Lucardi sound an important note of caution and remind scholars not to overestimate the power and significance of diffusion impulses. But the authors "throw out the baby with the bathwater" by suggesting that democracy protests do not diffuse at all. Here, however, the validity, significance, and theoretical relevance of the quantitative results seem questionable. Are the statistical methods employed by Brancati and Lucardi well suited for the analysis

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Section: Questions and Doubtsmentioning

confidence: 82%

Why Some Democracy Protests Do Diffuse

Weyland

2019

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…We propose that regime similarity plays a key role in determining whether protests succeed or fail in producing regime breakdown. Recent research suggests that antiregime protesters employ cognitive shortcuts: They latch onto examples and copy tactics that are easily available, without careful consideration of whether or how these tactics will work in a different political environment (Bamert, Gilardi, & Wasserfallen, 2015;Weyland, 2014Weyland, , 2016. A country's specific form of authoritarianism, however, shapes its vulnerability to protest and opposition from below.…”

Section: Specifying the Theory: The Expected Effect Of Regime Type Onmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking Democratic Diffusion: Bringing Regime Type Back In

Goldring

Greitens

2019

Comparative Political Studies

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Studies of democratic diffusion often emphasize geographic proximity: democratization in a country or region makes democratization nearby more likely. We argue that regime type has been underappreciated; authoritarian breakdown and democratization often diffuse along networks of similar regimes. A regime’s type affects its vulnerability to popular challenge, and regime similarity increases the likelihood that protest strategies developed against one regime are effective against similar regimes. We employ a qualitative case study from China to generate our theory, then test it quantitatively and with out-of-sample cases. We find that regime similarity strongly predicts autocratic breakdown and democratic diffusion, making both outcomes more likely. Including regime similarity significantly reduces the effect of geographic proximity, although geographic proximity may increase the effect of regime similarity. Reinterpreting democratic diffusion as a regime-type phenomenon calls for revision to conventional wisdom on the role of international factors in authoritarian breakdown and democratization.

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“…In the Arab Spring, close linkages between states facilitated learning and emulation that enabled authoritarian survival in several key cases, including Syria (Bamert et al. ; Heydemann & Leenders ).…”

Section: Mechanisms Of Regional Linkagementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional autocratic linkage and regime survival

Schmotz

Tansey

2017

European J Political Res

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In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.

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Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab Spring

Cited by 30 publications

References 46 publications

Why Some Democracy Protests Do Diffuse

Why Some Democracy Protests Do Diffuse

Rethinking Democratic Diffusion: Bringing Regime Type Back In

Regional autocratic linkage and regime survival

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