Within society, there are many publications regarding expectations of firm performance. These include analysis, industry insiders and ranking service. Within sports, bookmakers provide betting odds that reflect the expected outcome of matches and are determined by several factors. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of expected match outcome (i.e. betting odds) and compare them to those of actual match outcome. Data from the 2010/ 2011 season of the German Bundesliga (soccer) are made available that are combined with betting odds for each match. Regression results show that several factors, such as difference in standing between team and opponent, difference in competitions played, difference in points earned over the last five matches, differences in standing last season and home advantage significantly influence expected match outcome. On the contrary, actual match outcome is only determined by the latter two factors.
IntroductionModern day professional sports leagues are of great social and economic importance. These leagues harness the interest of a virtually boundless target group and, moreover, generate considerable economic spending in the form of gate receipts, sponsorships, premium seating and broadcasting rights. 1 The popularity of professional sports and the revenue streams of leagues and teams are notably affected by the match pairings. These pairings affect many stakeholders. Stakeholders are defined as groups or individuals who are affected by the focal organization's achievements. 2 For example, television networks capitalize on broadcasts of high quality games (e.g. between championship contenders) with extensive coverage, 3 and supporters are particularly inclined to attend local derbies that carry an intrinsic rivalry. 4 Another important stakeholder of professional sports leagues is bookmakers. They provide betting opportunities that range from betting on the final match outcome to bets on what team or player makes the next goal or throw-in. The betting market is flourishing with many providers being on the market. Sport bets attract a wide range of people. 5 Sport gamblers make their decisions based on the betting odds stated by the provider of sport bets. Throughout the literature, betting odds efficiently aggregate information to provide accurate predictions regarding the outcome of a match. 6 These betting odds are generated based on several factors that should