Determinants of expected vs. actual match outcome: an examination of the German Bundesliga

Abstract

Within society, there are many publications regarding expectations of firm performance. These include analysis, industry insiders and ranking service. Within sports, bookmakers provide betting odds that reflect the expected outcome of matches and are determined by several factors. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of expected match outcome (i.e. betting odds) and compare them to those of actual match outcome. Data from the 2010/ 2011 season of the German Bundesliga (soccer) are made available that are combined with betting odds for each match. Regression results show that several factors, such as difference in standing between team and opponent, difference in competitions played, difference in points earned over the last five matches, differences in standing last season and home advantage significantly influence expected match outcome. On the contrary, actual match outcome is only determined by the latter two factors. IntroductionModern day professional sports leagues are of great social and economic importance. These leagues harness the interest of a virtually boundless target group and, moreover, generate considerable economic spending in the form of gate receipts, sponsorships, premium seating and broadcasting rights. 1 The popularity of professional sports and the revenue streams of leagues and teams are notably affected by the match pairings. These pairings affect many stakeholders. Stakeholders are defined as groups or individuals who are affected by the focal organization's achievements. 2 For example, television networks capitalize on broadcasts of high quality games (e.g. between championship contenders) with extensive coverage, 3 and supporters are particularly inclined to attend local derbies that carry an intrinsic rivalry. 4 Another important stakeholder of professional sports leagues is bookmakers. They provide betting opportunities that range from betting on the final match outcome to bets on what team or player makes the next goal or throw-in. The betting market is flourishing with many providers being on the market. Sport bets attract a wide range of people. 5 Sport gamblers make their decisions based on the betting odds stated by the provider of sport bets. Throughout the literature, betting odds efficiently aggregate information to provide accurate predictions regarding the outcome of a match. 6 These betting odds are generated based on several factors that should

How do Bookmakers Interpret Running Performance of Teams in Previous Games? Evidence From the Football Bundesliga

“…A derby game, one which the competing clubs are located within 50 km from each other, has no impact on expected win probability. This result is consistent with previous research by both von Hanau et al (2015) and Soebbing et al (2015). Moreover, the effects of on-field team characteristics are in line with previous research on performance expectations using absolute and relative team quality (Soebbing et al, 2015; von Hanau et al, 2015).…”

“…Consistent with prior research on expected game outcomes in the Bundesliga (e.g. Soebbing et al, 2015; von Hanau et al, 2015), we anticipate PointsDiff to have a positive and significant effect on the win probability and the RankDiff to have a negative impact.…”

“…Home field advantage in the German Bundesliga is well documented throughout the literature studying expected team performance (e.g. Soebbing et al, 2015; von Hanau et al, 2015). The second variable measures whether the observed game is a derby game ( Derby ).…”

“…Previous research for leagues throughout the world delivered mixed results as it relates to the amount of rest (e.g. Foreman et al, 2016; Scoppa, 2015; von Hanau et al, 2015).…”

How to be Successful in Football: A Systematic Review

“…It increases the chance of winning by 45 percentage points [58]. Hanau, Wicker and Soebbing [59] investigated the difference between the expected outcome of a football match and the actual outcome. They found out that the actual outcome is determined by the standing in the last season and home advantage.…”