Abstract:This study examines how running performance (intensive runs, total distance covered) of football teams in previous games impacts betting markets as it relates to expected win probability. Theoretically, bookmakers could interpret team’s running performance as effort or fatigue, with sports science studies suggesting that distance covered reflects effort and intensive runs signal fatigue. Using data from the 2011/12-2018/19 seasons of the German Bundesliga, beta regression models reveal that bookmakers interpre… Show more
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