Large‐scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

Abstract

Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30-70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fisheries management options under climate change

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

“…Another critical point is whether ectothermic prey with a strict thermal optimum, such as myctophid fish [56], will be able to track the shift of the water masses to maintain their thermal optimum. In other parts of the world, several studies indicated that fish populations are responding to climate change by shifting their geographical distribution [4,57,58]. Unfortunately, myctophid fish are poorly studied in the sub-Antarctic waters and their response to future warming is unknown.…”

What is at stake? Status and threats to South China Sea marine fisheries

“…Fish species distribution is projected to shift in the future, resulting in higher diversity and fisheries potential in higher latitudes (Cheung et al 2010). This will potentially result in food security and livelihood issues for countries located in the more tropical zones of the SCS.…”

Climate change impacts and adaptation of commercial marine fisheries in Australia: a review of the science

“…Projections (A1B scenario) of global catch potential from 2005 to 2055 show an average of 30-70 % increase in high latitude regions and a~40 % decline in the tropics (Cheung et al 2010). Further modelling by Cheung et al (2011) projects that these fishery catch potentials may be reduced by an additional~10 % with the inclusion of biogeochemical factors (under the A1B scenario by 2050).…”