Large reductions in urban black carbon concentrations in the United States between 1965 and 2000

Kirchstetter, Thomas W.; Preble, C.; Hadley, O. L.; Bond, Tami C.; Apte, Joshua S.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.001

Cited by 26 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Nationally, derived PM 10 emissions were greater than NO x by mass prior to 1960 (Figure ) but saw initial declines due to the effective mitigation of industrial sources (EPA, ). The magnitude of the national PM 10 trend is consistent with California archival records from 1960 to 2005 for coefficient of haze, a retired measurement of particulate matter (Kirchstetter et al, ), though earlier PM 10 inventory data are less reliable. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) in the San Joaquin Valley was likely an important contributor to CCN midcentury, because the southern valley had considerable sulfate concentrations from local oil extraction (Jacob et al, ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 65%

Impact of Air Pollution Controls on Radiation Fog Frequency in the Central Valley of California

et al. 2019

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In California's Central Valley, tule fog frequency increased 85% from 1930 to 1970, then declined 76% in the last 36 winters. Throughout these changes, fog frequency exhibited a consistent north‐south trend, with maxima in southern latitudes. We analyzed seven decades of meteorological data and five decades of air pollution data to determine the most likely drivers changing fog, including temperature, dew point depression, precipitation, wind speed, and NOx (oxides of nitrogen) concentration. Climate variables, most critically dew point depression, strongly influence the short‐term (annual) variability in fog frequency; however, the frequency of optimal conditions for fog formation show no observable trend from 1980 to 2016. NOx concentration, which has a decreasing north‐south concentration gradient, declined continuously over this period, consistent with the long‐term temporal and spatial trends in fog. As development in the Central Valley increased direct particle and other pollutant emissions from 1930 to 1970, fog frequency increased. Following the Clean Air Act, particle emissions quickly declined, and NOx emissions declined steadily, reducing the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) available for fog formation. As a precursor of ammonium nitrate aerosols, which are efficient CCN, we used NOx measurements and emission trends as a proxy for the CCN trend. We conclude that while the short‐term fog variability is dominantly driven by climate fluctuations, the longer‐term temporal and spatial changes in fog have been driven by changes in air pollution. For conditions close to the dew point, a decrease in fog of 5 days/year per 10 parts per billion NOx decrease occurred across the Central Valley.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 65%

Impact of Air Pollution Controls on Radiation Fog Frequency in the Central Valley of California

et al. 2019

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“…In recent decades, stricter regulations by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and state agencies have 20 resulted in lower emissions of black carbon, hydrocarbons (including air toxics), and nitrogen oxides in many urban environments (e.g., Parrish et al, 2002;Peischl et al, 2010;Sather and Cavender 2012;Warneke et al, 2012;Zhou et al, 2014;Kirchstetter et al, 2017) while in other areas, both populated and remote, expansion or emergence of new oil and natural gas (O&G) exploration and production activities has led to higher emissions of air toxics, methane, and non-methane hydrocarbons, e.g., C 2 -C 8 and larger alkanes, benzene and larger aromatic species (e.g., 25 Petron et al, 2012;Gilman et al, 2013;Adgate et al, 2014;Helmig et al, 2014;Pekney et al, 2014;Warneke et al, 2014;Field et al, 2015;Koss et al, 2015;Rutter et al, 2015;Swarthout et al, 2015;Helmig et al, 2016;Prenni et al, 2016;Abeleira et al, 2017;Koss et al, 2017). The impact of higher emissions of such hydrocarbons from oil and gas fields of Utah and Wyoming on wintertime ozone has been assessed through recent measurement and modeling studies (Carter and Seinfeld 2012;Edwards et al, 2014;Rappenglück et al, 2014;Ahmadov et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources and Characteristics of Summertime Organic Aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: Perspective from Measurements and WRF-Chem Modeling

Bahreini¹,

Ahmadov²,

McKeen³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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2O&G sector using the top-down approach, it was estimated that the O&G sector contributed to <5% of total OA, but up to 38% of anthropogenic SOA in the region. The best agreement between the measured and simulated median OA was achieved by limiting the extent of biogenic hydrocarbon aging and consequently biogenic SOA (bSOA) production. Despite a lower production of bSOA in this scenario, contribution of bSOA to total SOA remained high at 40-54%. Future studies aiming at a better emissions characterization of POA and intermediate volatility organic

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“…The coefficient of variation of the decadal deposition rate during this 150 years is less than 0.3 in each grid box, except in a small part of the South Pacific Ocean, which is outside the study region. These variations in meteorology are much smaller than the threefold decrease in annual average BC concentration (Kirchstetter et al, 2017), which justifies using the same transport factor for the 50 years of this study. This distinction is physically plausible, as BC concentrations may be transported from upwind without demonstrating apparent dilution, while an increase in PBLH always has a diluting effect.…”

Section: Results: Discrepancy Factorsmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Novakov and Hansen () found different rates of reduction between atmospheric BC concentrations and estimates of BC emissions between 1962 and 2000 in Great Britain. Kirchstetter et al () found threefold to fivefold reduction in BC concentrations in seven states reduced in the United States from 1965 to 1980, while the fuel use and bottom‐up emissions by Bond et al () increased during the same period. In this work, we quantitatively examine this apparent contradiction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Constraining a Historical Black Carbon Emission Inventory of the United States for 1960–2000

et al. 2019

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We present an observationally constrained United States black carbon emission inventory with explicit representation of activity and technology between 1960 and 2000. We compare measured coefficient of haze data in California and New Jersey between 1965 and 2000 with predicted concentration trends and attribute discrepancies between observations and predicted concentrations among several sources based on seasonal and weekly patterns in observations. Emission factors for sources with distinct fuel trends are then estimated by comparing fuel and concentration trends and further substantiated by in‐depth examination of emission measurements. We recommend (1) increasing emission factors for preregulation vehicles by 80–250%; (2) increasing emission factors for residential heating stoves and boilers by 70% to 200% for 1980s and before; (3) explicitly representing naturally aspired off‐road engines for 1980s and before; and (4) explicitly representing certified wood stoves after 1985. We also evaluate other possible sources for discrepancy between model and measurement, including bias in modeled meteorology, subgrid spatial heterogeneity of concentrations, and inconsistencies in reported fuel consumption. The updated U.S. emissions are higher than the a priori estimate by 80% between 1960 and 1980, totaling 690 Gg/year in 1960 and 620 Gg/year in 1970 (excluding open burning). The revised inventory shows a strongly decreasing trend that was present in the observations but missing in the a priori inventory.

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Large reductions in urban black carbon concentrations in the United States between 1965 and 2000

Cited by 26 publications

References 29 publications

Impact of Air Pollution Controls on Radiation Fog Frequency in the Central Valley of California

Impact of Air Pollution Controls on Radiation Fog Frequency in the Central Valley of California

Sources and Characteristics of Summertime Organic Aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: Perspective from Measurements and WRF-Chem Modeling

Constraining a Historical Black Carbon Emission Inventory of the United States for 1960–2000

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