Landslides and New Lakes in Deglaciating Areas: A Risk Management Framework

Schaub, Yvonne; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Künzler, Matthias; Bründl, Michael

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-31313-4_5

Cited by 32 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Faced with ongoing global change, manifesting itself in the form of the deglaciation of the majority of high mountain ranges and the related formation and evolution of glacial lakes, the need for reliable risk identification, assessment, and effective mitigation is apparent worldwide (e.g. Carey et al ., ; Schaub et al ., ; Westoby et al ., ). Besides hazard mitigation, which is generally considered to be at a good level in the Cordillera Blanca, the second fundamental component in risk management is vulnerability mitigation, which is definitely not optimal at some localities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Nonetheless, it is clear that GLOF risk management poses a great scientific and engineering challenge to the sustainable development of high mountain areas worldwide (e.g. Richardson, ; Schaub et al ., ; Vilímek et al ., ). In accordance, glacial lakes have also been remediated in the Alps (Lichtenhahn, , ; Röthlisberger, ; Haeberli et al ., ), Scandinavia (Grabs and Hanisch, ), and especially in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya region (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Hazard mitigation of glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): the effectiveness of remedial works

Emmer

Vilímek

Zapata

2016

J Flood Risk Management

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Almost 40 glacial lakes have been remediated in the Cordillera Blanca since the 1940s by implementing different types of structural measures to prevent (mitigate) glacial lake outburst floods. These are (1) open cuts; (2) artificial dams; (3) tunnels; and their combinations. The first part of the paper provides an overview and description of the implemented remedial works. In the second part, the effectiveness of these remedial works is evaluated on the basis of a comparison of the quantified susceptibility of nine selected lakes to outburst floods before and after remediation. Our investigation showed that different types of remedial works have different impacts on the susceptibility of a given lake to outburst floods and are effective for different scenarios (causes and subsequent mechanisms) of outburst floods. Hazard management implications in the framework of risk management and ongoing geo‐environmental change are also discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Hazard mitigation of glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): the effectiveness of remedial works

Emmer

Vilímek

Zapata

2016

J Flood Risk Management

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“…Among these factors, the upstream glacier area reflects the area of accumulation and the glacier snout and suggests the magnitude of snow and ice avalanche if it occurs. The moraine-dammed lake area affects the volume of stored water and the maximum outburst flood volume, while the distance and slope between the lake and the glacier terminus and the steepness of the glacier snout determine the scale of snow/ ice/rock avalanches that collapse into the lakes from the glacier terminus, and whether the displacement waves from these snow/ice/rock bodies will further trigger an outburst flood (Awal et al 2010;Wang et al 2011;Schaub et al 2013). In the 20 most recently recorded GLOF disasters, 95% of outburst lake areas were more than 0.02 km 2 , and the distance between the lake and the mother glacier terminus was less than 500 m in the Chinese Himalaya.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Evolution and outburst risk analysis of moraine-dammed lakes in the central Chinese Himalaya

Wang

Shi-tai

2015

J Earth Syst Sci

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The recent evolution and outburst risk of two typical moraine-dammed lakes, Galong and Gangxi, central Chinese Himalaya, are analyzed using topographic maps from 1974 and Landsat satellite imagery acquired in 1988, 2000 and 2014. The datasets show the areas of Galong and Gangxi lakes increasing at rates of 0.45 and 0.34 km 2 /year during the period 1974-2014, an expansion of 501% and 107%, respectively, in the past 41 years, while the areas of the parent glaciers, Reqiang and Jipucong decreased by 44.22% and 37.76%, respectively. The accelerating retreat of the glaciers not only reflects their generally negative mass balance but is consistent with the rapid expansion of the moraine-dammed lakes. When acted upon by external forces such as earthquakes, heavy rainfall, rapid melting of glaciers and dead ice, and snow/ice/rock avalanches, these lakes can become extremely dangerous, easily forming outburst mudslides, which can potentially spread to the Poiqu river basin and develop into cross-border (China and Nepal) GLOF disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen integrated risk management of glacial lake outburst disasters with multiple objectives and modes.

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“…1a). The exact lake outburst mechanisms obviously cannot be predicted, but both evidence of existing landslides (Strozzi et al, 2010) and an expected further destabilization of slopes due to glacier retreat Huggel et al, 2012;Schaub et al, 2013) suggest that impacts from landslides into the lake and thus-produced displacement waves and outburst floods may be a realistic scenario. The frequency of a hazardous event is usually expressed as the probability of occurrence or the return period (Bründl et al, 2009).…”

Section: Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes

Nussbaumer

Schaub

Huggel

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential.Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.

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Landslides and New Lakes in Deglaciating Areas: A Risk Management Framework

Cited by 32 publications

References 61 publications

Hazard mitigation of glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): the effectiveness of remedial works

Hazard mitigation of glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru): the effectiveness of remedial works

Evolution and outburst risk analysis of moraine-dammed lakes in the central Chinese Himalaya

Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes

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