Landslide susceptibility mapping using information value and logistic regression models in Goncha Siso Eneses area, northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

Goncha Siso Eneses area of East Gojam Zone in northwestern Ethiopia is one of the most landslide-prone regions, which is characterized by frequent landslide occurrences causing fatalities and damages in cultivated and non-cultivated lands, infrastructure and properties. Hence, preparing a landslide susceptibility map is very helpful in reducing the damages in infrastructure and properties and loss of animal and human lives. In this study, GIS-based information value and logistic regression models were applied. A reliable and detailed landslide inventory with 894 landslides was prepared through detailed fieldwork and Google Earth image interpretation. These landslides were randomly divided into training data set for model development and testing data set for model validation. Nine landslide causative factors like slope, curvature, aspect, lithology, distance to stream, distance to lineament, distance to spring, rainfall and land use/cover were integrated with training landslides to determine the weight(s) of each landslide factor and factor classes using Information Value and Logistic Regression models, respectively. The landslide susceptibility index map was then produced by summing the weights of all the landslide factors using raster calculator of the spatial analyst tool in GIS. To evaluate the performance of the information value and logistic regression models for landslide susceptibility modeling, the relative landslide density index and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves were performed on both the training and testing landslide data sets. The model has an AUC accuracy of 88.9% success rate and 85.9% prediction rate for information value model whereas 81.8% success rate and 80.2% predictive rate for logistic regression model.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping using Statistical Methods in Uatzau Catchment Area, Northwestern Ethiopia

“…This correlation indicated that landslide probability increase as the slope gradient increases(Sun 2009), however, it may not be always true when the steep slope comprised of massive and strong slope material. Landslide may have occurred in a gentle slope when the slope material is loose and the slope subjected to modification due to anthropogenic and natural activity(Wubalem & Meten 2020). However, in the present study area, the result of the FR value indicated inTable 2, as the slope angle increased, the landslide probability is increased.…”

“…It has occurred when the driving force exceeds the resistance force due to the destabilization of natural soil or rock slopes. The natural slope will be destabilized by the natural and anthropogenic factors including improper land use practice, the presence of loss sediment, heavy and prolonged rainfall, highly weathered and fractured rocks, gully and riverbank erosion, earthquake, due to superficial soil-rock interfere and unplanned urban explanation (Kifle 2013; Wubalem and Meten, 2020). The landslides activities in Ethiopia are mostly associated in northern, northwestern, central, southern, southwestern and the rift escarpments due to the presence of complex geomorphological setting, hydrological setting, geological setting, active geodynamic process and unplanned land use practice (Kifle 2013).…”

“…Globally, a landslide is causing thousands of victims and deaths, hundreds of billion dollars of damages, and environmental losses every year ( Wubalem and Meten 2020). In the last two years, from 2018 -2019, rainfall triggered landslides also caused 60 people to died, 30 people were injured, 5,091 households were displaced, houses were damaged, and a widely cultivated and noncultivated land was destructed in different parts of the country (Wubalem and Meten 2020). Despite the landslide problem is critical in Ethiopia, still there is no adequate slope stability assessment has applied in the different parts of the country (Wubalem and Meten 2020).…”

“…In the last two years, from 2018 -2019, rainfall triggered landslides also caused 60 people to died, 30 people were injured, 5,091 households were displaced, houses were damaged, and a widely cultivated and noncultivated land was destructed in different parts of the country (Wubalem and Meten 2020). Despite the landslide problem is critical in Ethiopia, still there is no adequate slope stability assessment has applied in the different parts of the country (Wubalem and Meten 2020). Uatzau basin is one of the areas that frequently affected by the rainfall triggered landslide incidences and so far, the area not yet studied.…”

“…Wubalem and Meten 2020). Therefore, validation of the landslide susceptibility model is very important to evaluate the degree of accuracy of modeling using different validation techniques(Gorsevski et al 200;Chung and Fabbri 2003).…”