Landscape futures analysis: Assessing the impacts of environmental targets under alternative spatial policy options and future scenarios

Bryan, Brett A.; Crossman, Neville D.; King, Darran; Meyer, Wayne S.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.034

Cited by 100 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Models can be useful platforms to engage stakeholders by informing them about the complexity of the resource system with which they interact and allowing them to explore the potential outcomes of different management and intervention scenarios (Carpenter and Gunderson 2001, Seely et al 2004, Bryan et al 2011). Hybrid models, often integrating geographic information systems with agent or individualbased approaches, are tools of choice for modeling regional systems and are increasingly being used to study natural and common-pool resource management problems (Parker et al 2003, Matthews et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes

Parrott¹,

Chion²,

Gonzalès³

et al. 2012

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Landscapes are complex systems. Landscape dynamics are the result of multiple interacting biophysical and socioeconomic processes that are linked across a broad range of spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. Understanding and describing landscape dynamics poses enormous challenges and demands the use of new multiscale approaches to modeling. In this synthesis article, we present three regional systems-i.e., a forest system, a marine system, and an agricultural systemand describe how hybrid, bottom-up modeling of these systems can be used to represent linkages across scales and between subsystems. Through the use of these three examples, we describe how modeling can be used to simulate emergent system responses to different conservation policy and management scenarios from the bottom up, thereby increasing our understanding of important drivers and feedback loops within a landscape. The first case study involves the use of an individual-based modeling approach to simulate the effects of forest harvesting on the movement patterns of large mammals in Canada's boreal forest and the resulting emergent population dynamics. This model is being used to inform forest harvesting and management guidelines. The second case study combines individual and agent-based approaches to simulate the dynamics of individual boats and whales in a marine park. This model is being used to inform decision-makers on how to mitigate the impacts of maritime traffic on whales in the Saint Lawrence Estuary in eastern Canada. The third example is a case study of biodiversity conservation efforts on the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. In this example, the social-ecological system is represented as a complex network of interacting components. Methods of network analysis can be used to explore the emergent responses of the system to changes in the network structure or configuration, thus informing managers about the resilience of the system. These three examples illustrate how bottom-up modeling approaches may contribute to a new landscape science based on scenario building, to find solutions that meet the multiple objectives of integrated resource management in social-ecological systems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes

Parrott¹,

Chion²,

Gonzalès³

et al. 2012

E&S

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“…However, until recently, computing capacity was a barrier to the sort of large-scale, highresolution modelling required (Zhao et al, 2015). Bryan, Crossman, King and Meyer (2011) provided examples of the type of complex analyses required in dealing with issues of sustainable agriculture. Often, we are interested in the analysis of potential future landscapes, which require multiple objectives, multiple scenarios, complex prioritisation and quantification of a range of impacts.…”

Section: Increasing Computational Demands From Land Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Land Use in Australia: Past, Present and Future

Clancy¹,

Bryan²,

Guru³

2018

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“…Watts & Handley, 2010;Martín-Martín et al, 2013); • Landscape or habitat connectivity or connectedness modelling as well as target animal movements, using for example percolation or cost-distance models (Richard & Armstrong, 2010;Etherington & Holland, 2013); • Evaluation of management scenarios according to different sets of valuation criteria (Fernandes, 2000a;Castellazzi et al, 2010;Bryan et al, 2011).…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying an integrated landscape characterization and evaluation tool to small islands (Pico, Azores, Portugal)

Fernandes¹,

Guiomar²,

Freire³

et al. 2014

RGCI

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Each landscape is determined and can be characterised by two types of environmental factors: stable biophysical characteristics and manageable land use patterns. The consideration of both these characterisation domains allows the definition of a homogeneous system of reference (the stable characteristics) with which every possible land use pattern can be compared through the use of common evaluation algorithms. The Integrated Landscape Assessment (ILA) concept builds a framework for data retrieval and evaluation processing that maximizes the following advantages: through the use of a stable reference system, it allows the comparative simulation of different land use scenarios, as well as the permanent availability of the same reference system, independently from the intensity of land use changes throughout the years. It also allows the use of different evaluation algorithms according to different evaluation contexts or paradigms, without having to repeat or adapt the characterisation process.The present paper illustrates the basic concepts on which ILA is based and developed as well as its application to ecological planning and systematic conservation planning in the Pico Island (Azores Archipelago).Keywords: Systematic conservation planning, integrated landscape assessment, GIS, Macaronesia. Resumo Cada território é determinado e pode ser caracterizado por dois tipos de factores ambientais: características biofísicas estáveis e padrões de uso do solo susceptíveis de gestão. A consideração destes dois domínios de caracterização permite a definição de um sistema de referência homogéneo (as características

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Landscape futures analysis: Assessing the impacts of environmental targets under alternative spatial policy options and future scenarios

Cited by 100 publications

References 41 publications

Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes

Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes

Land Use in Australia: Past, Present and Future

Applying an integrated landscape characterization and evaluation tool to small islands (Pico, Azores, Portugal)

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