Land Use Change Impact on Flooding Areas: The Case Study of Cervaro Basin (Italy)

Apollonio, Ciro; Balacco, Gabriella; Novelli, Antonio; Tarantino, Eufemia; Piccinni, Alberto Ferruccio

doi:10.3390/su8100996

Cited by 103 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Conversely, ISIMIP and JRC-GL made use of global datasets, namely population density from the Global Human Settlement Layer [34], and land use derived from the GlobCover 2009 at 10 s (∼300 m) resolution [35]. All exposure layers on population density and land use were chosen as the best available products for each specific application, though several studies point out the added value of including the time variability of exposure to improve flood risk assessments [52,53].…”

Section: Flood Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Alfieri

Dottori

Betts

et al. 2018

Climate

116

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Abstract:Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

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Section: Flood Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Alfieri

Dottori

Betts

et al. 2018

Climate

116

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although the death toll is relatively stable across all flooding events, the related economic losses are rising worldwide [2]. Moreover, the anthropic impact on land use changes can exacerbate the effects of floods, especially at the local scale [3]. Therefore, techniques based on Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing Imagery (RSI) have recently been adopted for the analysis of river basin behavior during flooding events in order to improve the extraction of land use factors [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Risk Evaluation in Urban Flooding and Instability-Prone Areas: The Case Study of San Giovanni Rotondo (Southern Italy)

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Estimating economic losses caused on buildings and other civil engineering works due to flooding events is often a difficult task. The accuracy of the estimate is affected by the availability of detailed data regarding the return period of the flooding event, vulnerability of exposed assets, and type of economy run in the affected area. This paper aims to provide a quantitative methodology for the assessment of economic losses associated with flood scenarios. The proposed methodology was performed for an urban area in Southern Italy prone to hydrogeological instabilities. At first, the main physical characteristics of the area such as rainfall, land use, permeability, roughness, and slopes of the area under investigation were estimated in order to obtain input for flooding simulations. Afterwards, the analysis focused on the spatial variability incidence of the rainfall parameters in flood events. The hydraulic modeling provided different flood hazard scenarios. The risk curve obtained by plotting economic consequences vs. the return period for each hazard scenario can be a useful tool for local authorities to identify adequate risk mitigation measures and therefore prioritize the economic resources necessary for the implementation of such mitigation measures.

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“…Further, intensification of the hydrological cycle with climate change may lead to larger and more frequent floods [3][4][5][6], and land use change may increase flood risk through expansion of urban areas, which typically limit soil permeability [7], or through development in the flood plain. Examples of recent extreme flood events include flooding in the Calgary, Alberta, area in 2013, which created the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history, with damage of approximately $6 billion [8], and the largest number of flood events recorded in a single year in the United States in 2016, the most catastrophic of which occurred in Louisiana [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Combined Effects of Threshold Selection and Parameter Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution with Applications to Flood Frequency Analysis

Gharib

Davies

Goss

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:Floods are costly natural disasters that are projected to increase in severity and frequency into the future. Exceedances over a high threshold and analysis of their distributions, as determined through the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method and approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), respectively, are widely used for flood frequency analysis. This study investigates the combined effects of threshold selection and GPD parameter estimation on the accuracy of flood quantile estimates, and develops a new, widely-applicable framework that significantly improves the accuracy of flood quantile estimations. First, the performance of several parameter estimators (i.e., Maximum Likelihood; Probability Weighted Moments; Maximum Goodness of Fit; Likelihood Moment; Modified Likelihood Moment; and Nonlinear Weighted Least Square Error) for the GPD was compared through Monte Carlo simulation. Then, a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the province of Alberta, Canada, was used to reproduce daily streamflow series for 47 watersheds distributed across the province, and the POT was applied to each. The Goodness of Fit for the resulting flood frequency models was measured by the upper tail Anderson-Darling (AD) test and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and demonstrated improvements for more than one-third of stations by averages of 65% (AD) and 47% (RMSE), respectively.

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Land Use Change Impact on Flooding Areas: The Case Study of Cervaro Basin (Italy)

Cited by 103 publications

References 50 publications

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Economic Risk Evaluation in Urban Flooding and Instability-Prone Areas: The Case Study of San Giovanni Rotondo (Southern Italy)

Assessment of the Combined Effects of Threshold Selection and Parameter Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution with Applications to Flood Frequency Analysis

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