Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Dottori, Francesco; Betts, Richard; Salamon, Peter; Feyen, Luc

doi:10.3390/cli6010006

Cited by 117 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…Modeled asset damages in this study are validated in the study of Alfieri et al (2018), which shows that they are well in line with observed asset damages. More difficult is the validation of the modeled indirect losses (Koks 2018), which has proven to be difficult as the wider economic impacts after a disaster are not (well) documented and, for Europe, are lacking almost completely.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

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The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe

Koks

Thissen

Alfieri

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicitly includes the indirect effects via regional economic interdependencies to model economic disaster losses on a continental scale, exemplified by river flooding in Europe. The results demonstrate that economic implications go beyond the direct damages typically considered. Moreover, we find that indirect losses can be offset by up to 60% by economic actors through finding alternative suppliers and markets within their existing trade relations. Towards the future, increases in economic flood losses (up to 350%) can be expected for all global warming scenarios. Indirect losses rise by 65% more compared to direct asset damages due to the increasing size of future flood events, making it more difficult to offset losses through alternative suppliers and markets. On a sectoral level, future increases in losses are highest for commercial services (∼980%) and public utilities (∼580%). As the latter are predominately affected through cascading effects, this highlights how interdependencies between economic actors could amplify future disaster losses.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…In Europe, large-scale floods occur almost every year and, due to climate change, their frequency and magnitude is expected to increase (Kundzewicz et al 2014, Forzieri et al 2016, Alfieri et al 2018. Floods can affect several river basins or countries at the same time, leading to highly correlated direct damages (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe

Koks

Thissen

Alfieri

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The set of climate models were selected as representative of a range of outcomes for future climate change, including high and low climate sensitivity, different biases in baseline precipitation climatology, and different global patterns of precipitation change (Alfieri et al, 2017(Alfieri et al, , 2018. The set of climate models were selected as representative of a range of outcomes for future climate change, including high and low climate sensitivity, different biases in baseline precipitation climatology, and different global patterns of precipitation change (Alfieri et al, 2017(Alfieri et al, , 2018.…”

Section: Geophysical Research Lettersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We use an ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations from downscaled general circulation models under RCP 8.5 and analyze drought conditions over 30-year time windows centered on the SWLs. The set of climate models were selected as representative of a range of outcomes for future climate change, including high and low climate sensitivity, different biases in baseline precipitation climatology, and different global patterns of precipitation change (Alfieri et al, 2017(Alfieri et al, , 2018. Drought changes with respect to historical conditions are derived from a peak over threshold analysis using the SPEI multiscalar drought index that represents both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance.…”

Section: Naumann Et Al 3285mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Naumann

Alfieri

Wyser

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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545

298

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Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply‐demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north‐west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South‐eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100‐year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

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“…global warming, precipitation, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, RegCM4, surface temperature 1 | INTRODUCTION Global warming and its impact on the water cycle have attracted a great attention of the scientific community in recent years (e.g., Trenberth et al, 2014;Alfieri et al, 2018). Many aspects of the water cycle have undergone changes in a warming climate, including more intense droughts in some areas (Trenberth et al, 2014) and more frequent floods in others (Alfieri et al, 2018). Reduction of precipitation in subtropical semi-arid to arid regions under global warming is noted in most previous studies (e.g., Alizadeh-Choobari and Najafi, 2018b), and this certainly has exacerbated semi-arid to arid conditions over these regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of global warming on the surface water balance components in Iran as simulated by RegCM4

Moslemzadeh

Irannejad

Alizadeh

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The impacts of future global warming on the climate of semi‐arid to arid regions of Iran have remained mostly unexplored. Using Regional Climate Model version 4.4 (RegCM4) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, changes in surface water balance components in Iran are investigated for the future period 2070 to 2099 relative to the base period 1970 to 1999. The initial and boundary conditions for RegCM4 were derived from the CSIRO‐Mk3.6 general circulation model (GCM). Model results during the base period are compared against the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis Interim (ERA‐Interim) and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets. Analyses of the ERA‐Interim and CRU datasets and model simulations during the base period indicated that due to the large latitudinal extent of Iran and its complex topography, different regions of the country experience a diverse range of climate, with monthly precipitation ranging from 0.1 mm day−1 over arid regions of southeastern Iran to more than 2.5 mm day−1 over wet coastal regions of northern Iran. In the future period, near‐surface temperatures over all regions of Iran will increase under the two scenarios, with more temperature rises under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under the two scenarios, precipitation over most regions of Iran will increase in winter and decrease in summer. As winter will be warmer in the future under the two scenarios, and a warmer air has a higher water vapour storage capacity, precipitation will increase in the future winter climate. On the other hand, the decrease of precipitation in summer is due to an increase of the altitude of the lifting condensation level under the warmer climate. It is shown that increases in the surface temperature and precipitation in the future winter are associated with an increase of evaporatranspiration in nearly all regions of Iran.

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Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

Cited by 117 publications

References 49 publications

The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe

The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Impacts of global warming on the surface water balance components in Iran as simulated by RegCM4

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