Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Abstract

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km2 is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km2 by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.

Global inventory of suitable, cultivable and available cropland under different scenarios and policies

“… 32 and Cronin et al . 31 . A detailed description on the methodological improvements of the updated agricultural suitability v3.0 compared to the previous version v2.0 is provided in the description of the dataset 29 .…”

“…2014 32 , Cronin et al . 2020 31 30 arc-seconds (~1 km) 1980–2009 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 ESA CCI land cover classification ESA. Land Cover CCI Product User Guide Version 2.…”

“…The assessment of potentially cultivable land is based on the historic and future agricultural suitability for 23 food, feed, fiber, and first- and second-generation bioenergy crops 31 , 32 considered as globally important with respect to their cultivation area and production volumes (Table 1 ). By using a fuzzy logic land suitability model 32 , the approach accounts for crop-specific characteristics and requirements during the growing period with regard to climate, soil and topography, and considers the effects of climate change on the agricultural suitability for two representative concentration pathways, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 33 .…”

Lógica Fuzzy na Agricultura: Breve Histórico

“…Modelagem fuzzy do vigor das videiras a partir da coleta de dados na França para suportar melhorias nas práticas agrícolas voltadas a produtividade. (Balachandran et al, 2020) Irrigation system using hyperspectral data and machnie learning techniques for smart agriculture Geração de modelagem fuzzy e aprendizado de máquina para otimização de uso de água na irrigação usando sensoriamento de imagens hiperespectrais para leitura de umidade do solo (Cronin et al, 2020)…”

Land-use change from food to energy: meta-analysis unravels effects of bioenergy on biodiversity and amenity

“…It is often assumed that an expansion of bioenergy crops will largely occur on marginal unimproved semi-natural land rather than productive agricultural land, but this assumption is likely too simplistic. Whilst sizeable opportunities for bioenergy crop deployment may exist on land that does not conflict with either natural ecosystems or food production 21 , in reality, these areas of land may not align with locations of bioenergy demand, adding to both financial and carbon costs 15 . These areas may also be difficult for crop cultivation or prioritised for future food security over conversion to bioenergy cropping 22 .…”