Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes

Lo, Min‐Hui; Kuo, Tzu‐Hsien; Wey, Hao‐Wei; Lan, C. W.; Chen, Jen‐Ping

doi:10.1002/9781119068020.ch5

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 146 publications

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“…Basic considerations on projected temperature increases (e.g., higher evening and night temperatures or possible changes in the surface heat budget) could partly explain this result. However, various processes and local to large‐scale land‐atmosphere feedbacks, may also be involved (e.g., and references therein Lo et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50‐Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America

et al. 2019

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Global warming is expected to produce modifications in the intensity, as well as in the seasonality and spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation. In the present study, the temporal evolution of simulated daily and subdaily precipitation extremes was analyzed to assess how they respond to climate warming over different time horizons. Pooling series from the recent 50‐member Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 Large Ensemble, the probability distributions, date and time of occurrences, and spatiotemporal structure of simulated Annual Maxima (AM) precipitation were analyzed at various spatial scales and for durations between 1 hr and 3 days. In agreement with previous studies, the results underline the large increases in AM precipitation quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events (i.e., longest return periods), and modifications in their spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles. For instance, subdaily AM extremes are expected to occur later in the evening, while, no matter the duration, the extremes are expected to occur over a wider period of the year in future climate. Finally, the analysis of projected AM probability distributions showed that heavy‐tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters. These results may have major consequences in terms of the occurrence and possible impacts of the most extreme precipitation events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50‐Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America

et al. 2019

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“…Motivated by the body of research that identifies soil moisture as an important factor for temperature variability and extremes during summer (Seneviratne et al 2010(Seneviratne et al , 2013Horton et al 2016;Grotjahn et al 2016;Lo et al 2017), its impact on the residual component is explored below. The correlation between the residual component and the average soil moisture in the top 10cm of soil one week prior to each heatwave is displayed in Figure 8a.…”

Section: The Role Of Soil Moisturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the influence of large-scale circulation patterns, summer temperature extremes can be amplified or damped due to interactions with the land surface. In particular, soil moisture has been identified as an important mediator of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere (Seneviratne et al 2010(Seneviratne et al , 2013Grotjahn et al 2016;Horton et al 2016;Lo et al 2017). Reductions in soil moisture can shift the partitioning of incoming heat from latent to sensible heating, thereby increasing the surface and lower atmospheric temperature (Fischer et al 2007b;Miralles et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circulation and Soil Moisture Contributions to Heatwaves in the United States

2022

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Extreme heat events are a threat to human health, productivity, and food supply, so understanding their drivers is critical to adaptation and resilience. Anticyclonic circulation and certain quasistationary Rossby wave patterns are well-known to coincide with heatwaves, and soil moisture deficits amplify extreme heat in some regions. However, the relative roles of these two factors in causing heatwaves is still unclear. Here we use constructed circulation analogs to estimate the contribution of atmospheric circulation to United States heatwaves in the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) preindustrial control simulations. After accounting for the component of the heatwaves explained by circulation, we explore the relationship between the residual temperature anomalies and soil moisture. We find that circulation explains over 85% of heatwave temperature anomalies in the eastern and western US, but only 75-85% in the central US. In this region, there is a significant negative correlation between soil moisture the week before the heatwave and the strength of the heatwave that explains additional variance. Further, for the hottest central US heatwaves, positive temperature anomalies and negative soil moisture anomalies are evident over a month before heatwave onset. These results provide evidence that positive land-atmosphere feedbacks may be amplifying heatwaves in the central US and demonstrate the geographic heterogeneity in the relative importance of the land and atmosphere for heatwave development. Analysis of future circulation and soil moisture in the CESM1 Large Ensemble indicates that over parts of the US, both may be trending towards greater heatwave likelihood.

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Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes

Cited by 2 publications

References 146 publications

Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50‐Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America

Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50‐Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America

Circulation and Soil Moisture Contributions to Heatwaves in the United States

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