La croissance des villes canadiennes et australiennes guidée par le hasard ? Enjeux et mesure de la croissance aléatoire urbaine

Lalanne, Aurélie; Zumpe, Martin

doi:10.7202/1083621ar

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…From data on French cities' population covering almost two centuries , Guerin-Pace (1995) rejected random growth based on a parametric approach. Finally, while Lalanne and Zumpe 1 (2020) confirmed that French cities observe random growth through a unit-root test, Lalanne and Zumpe (2019) also demonstrated that random growth processes can be very diverse (three processes at least) and that Gibrat's law is not the only stochastic process operating in urban systems. Nonetheless, departures from Zipf's and Gibrat's laws constitute exciting research perspectives and have been documented in the literature on urban economics by, for example, natural advantage locations or industrial composition among other things (Gabaix and Ioannides, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Discontinuous structure of regional and subregional urban systems: Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France (1800–2015)

2022

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In the prevailing literature in urban economics, conducting research on urban systems at the national scale tends to provide an elegant but reductive approach to the functioning of these systems, assuming, in particular, that city size distributions are continuous. Based on an alternative framework drawing from research in ecology and complex adaptive systems, this article questions this approach by testing the discontinuity hypothesis within regional urban systems in France using two methods and long-term census data (1800–2015). We found that the distribution of city sizes over the 200+ years of population data from the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region was discontinuous for every year of data. The distributions consist of groups of similarly sized cities, separated by gaps (discontinuities) where there are no cities at all. The location and number of discontinuities were conservative over time, suggesting that the processes shaping size classes are conservative and largely independent of societal disturbances such as wars. The two methods used to identify discontinuities were highly congruent. Finally, the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region is comprised of three former regions, Aquitaine, Limousin and Poitou-Charentes, each of which also had discontinuous city size distributions with conservative structures over time. The study results question the traditional expectations about the growth and development of urban systems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Discontinuous structure of regional and subregional urban systems: Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France (1800–2015)

2022

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Urban growth in the long term: Belgium, 1880–1970

2023

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We take advantage of a new data set on Belgian cities to test random growth, that is, Gibrat’s law. This unique data set provides annual population estimates for all Belgian municipalities (2680 cities) from 1880 to 1970. The use of panel data methodology and unit root tests can provide a precise test of Gibrat’s law (a unit root is equivalent to random growth). We run both time series and panel data unit root tests, thus obtaining strong support for random growth in the long term. Results hold when allowing for the presence of one and two structural breaks in the mean, with the timing of the breaks coinciding with some major historical events, such as the World Wars and the economic crisis of 1929–1933.

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Formation de la fracture territoriale en Nouvelle-Aquitaine

Lalanne¹

2021

Revue D’Économie Régionale &Amp; Urbaine

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Cet article étudie la formation de la fracture territoriale en Nouvelle-Aquitaine sur deux siècles (1800-2015) et analyse le système urbain régional dans son ensemble. Cette vaste région contrastée, comptant autant d’atouts métropolitains que des communes rurales à faible attractivité, fait face à des enjeux d’équité et de cohésion territoriale que le prisme métropolitain des récentes réformes territoriales exacerbent. D’une part, cet article revisite les principes théoriques d’organisation des systèmes urbains (lois de Zipf et de Gibrat) en les mobilisant en tant qu’outils méthodologiques (paramétriques et non-paramétriques) permettant de décrire le creusement des inégalités de taille, d’appréhender l’évolution du lien entre la taille des communes et leur croissance ainsi que l’importance de la proximité à Bordeaux dans les dynamiques de croissance. D’autre part, cet article questionne les capacités de ruissellement d’une métropole ainsi que la possibilité des politiques d’attractivité à assurer la cohésion démographique, économique et sociale des territoires. Classification JEL : R11, R12.

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La croissance des villes canadiennes et australiennes guidée par le hasard ? Enjeux et mesure de la croissance aléatoire urbaine

Cited by 3 publications

References 19 publications

Discontinuous structure of regional and subregional urban systems: Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France (1800–2015)

Discontinuous structure of regional and subregional urban systems: Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France (1800–2015)

Urban growth in the long term: Belgium, 1880–1970

Formation de la fracture territoriale en Nouvelle-Aquitaine

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