Köppen’s climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

Projections of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula are investigated using a 7-ensemble mean of regional climate models obtained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected in the 2041-2070 period, with greater shifts occurring under RCP8.5. An overall increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types, dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of Iberia for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% by 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.5% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replace CSb (warm-summer climate) in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is particularly noticeable in Portugal, with the projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. The predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards the Pyrenees region is noteworthy, as is the increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8 and 9%) in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot desert, respectively), non-existent in the 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of the territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase in steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

“…The heterogeneity of the spatial patterns in the future, under both RCPs, also suggests changes in the large-scale patterns of daily precipitation in IP that were already identified in the past [60]. Furthermore, the upward trend in the dry events is projected to be strengthened in future climates, which is also in agreement with previous studies with related impacts on droughts [61], bioclimatic conditions [62], or climate classification [21,63]. Since droughts have deep impacts on water resources, agriculture, and the environment, this is particularly relevant.…”

Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula

“…These changes also imply a significantly increasing interannual variability in the future, with consequences in climate classification. Indeed, the predicted changes in Köppen's climate classification points towards the increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates in the Iberian southeast [1]. Furthermore, recent studies also project an increase of intermediate to severe dry events until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5 and in the southern region of the IP [62].…”

“…Bias correction was applied using the quantile-quantile bias correction method, which assumes that the distribution function of a variable may change in the future. This methodology was already used in other publications, such as Andrade and Contente [1] (for further details see Amengual et al, [45]; Maraun, [46]), and allows the correction of the complete distribution, tails included. Subsequently, all variables were bias-corrected for all periods and an ensemble of the six bias-corrected RCMs was eventually used to compute the aridity indices.…”

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

“…The last letter specifies the level of heat, with a for hot summer, b for warm summer, c for cold summer, d for very cold winter, and h and k are associated with hot and cold climates, respectively. The whole calculation follows the methodology described by Kottek et al [37] in Tables S1 and S2, whereas the nomenclature (Table S1) and color scheme follow Andrade and Contente [25]. In this study, the concept of highaltitude type (H climates) was not applied.…”

“…In this study, the concept of highaltitude type (H climates) was not applied. Further details on this methodology can be found in Andrade and Contente [25].…”