Keynes: Philosophy, Economics and Politics

A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty

“…Again Keynes's analysis can provide a basis for this constructive task. As Keynesian scholars such as Carabelli (1988), O'Donnell (1989 and Gerrard (1992) have recognised, Keynes's analysis of economic behaviour in The General Theory is grounded in his earlier philosophical work on probability theory particularly A Treatise on Probability (Keynes, 1921). In the Treatise, Keynes's sought to develop a more general theory of probability.…”

Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making

“…The emphasis placed on it by the first generation of Keynesian followers has even led to their being identified as "Chapter 12 Keynesians" (Coddington 1976), while a second wave of Keynesian interpretations has investigated its link with the TP (Lawson 1985, Carabelli 1988, O'Donnell 1989. The impact of uncertainty on investment decisions discussed in Chapter 12 motivates Keynes's concern with the rational grounds underlying decision-making, and the relevance of conventional behaviour emerges in his analysis of financial markets when discussing investor's beliefs about prospective yields on assets.…”

Diagnosticando patologias monetárias: seus impactos sobre a atividade produtiva na visão de Keynes e Veblen

“…Keynes, por sua vez, acreditava que embora seja difícil avaliar o melhor curso de uma ação, é possível exercer julgamento, ou até seguir um compromisso intuitivo. Para O'Donnell (1989), o jovem Keynes acreditava que uma certa ignorância em relação ao futuro não é razão suficiente para negar a possibilidade de um julgamento racional sobre ações. Então, o julgamento racional poderia proceder mesmo em condições de incerteza.…”