Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Challenges of Multibasin Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Guard, Charles P.; Carr, Lester E.; Wells, Frank; Jeffries, Richard A.; Gural, Nicholas D.; Edson, Dianne K.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0328:jtwcat>2.0.co;2

Cited by 35 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Satellite radiances were assimilated from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) A and B channels, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) radiances, ozone retrievals, and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). Additionally, the operational ''working best track'' estimates of TC minimum central pressure and position, called TCVitals, were assimilated (Guard et al 1992;Rappaport et al 2009). Here, unlike Chen and Snyder (2007), we did not separately assimilate position and central pressure, but rather simply provided the estimate of minimum central pressure to the assimilation algorithm as a standard surface-pressure observation, with an assigned error of 2 hPa.…”

Section: B Data Assimilation System and Observations Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009’s Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Hamill

Whitaker

Fiorino

et al. 2011

Monthly Weather Review

160

118

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Verification was performed on ensemble forecasts of 2009 Northern Hemisphere summer tropical cyclones (TCs) from two experimental global numerical weather prediction ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). The first model was a high-resolution version (T382L64) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). The second model was a 30-km version of the experimental NOAA/ Earth System Research Laboratory's Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM). Both models were initialized with the first 20 members of a 60-member ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using the T382L64 GFS. The GFS-EnKF assimilated the full observational data stream that was normally assimilated into the NCEP operational Global Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, plus human-synthesized ''observations'' of tropical cyclone central pressure and position produced at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The forecasts from the two experimental ensembles were compared against four operational EPSs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NCEP, the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), and the Met Office (UKMO).The errors of GFS-EnKF ensemble track forecasts were competitive with those from the ECMWF ensemble system, and the overall spread of the ensemble tracks was consistent in magnitude with the track error. Both experimental EPSs had much lower errors than the operational NCEP, UKMO, and CMC EPSs, but the FIM-EnKF tracks were somewhat less accurate than the GFS-EnKF. The ensemble forecasts were often stretched in particular directions, and not necessarily along or across track. The better-performing EPSs provided useful information on potential track error anisotropy. While the GFS-EnKF initialized relatively deep vortices by assimilating the TC central pressure estimate, the model storms filled during the subsequent 24 h. Other forecast models also systematically underestimated TC intensity (e.g., maximum forecast surface wind speed). The higher-resolution models generally had less bias.Analyses were conducted to try to understand whether the additional central pressure observation, the EnKF, or the extra resolution was most responsible for the decrease in track error of the experimental Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)-EnKF over the operational NCEP. The assimilation of the additional TC observations produced only a small change in deterministic track forecasts initialized with the GSI. The T382L64 GFS-EnKF ensemble was used to initialize a T126L28 ensemble forecast to facilitate a comparison with the operational NCEP system. The T126L28 GFS-EnKF EPS track forecasts were dramatically better than the NCEP operational, suggesting the positive impact of the EnKF, perhaps through improved steering flow.

show abstract

Section: B Data Assimilation System and Observations Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009’s Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Hamill

Whitaker

Fiorino

et al. 2011

Monthly Weather Review

160

118

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…6; Guard et al 1992). Over a 16-yr period from 1972 to 1987, dedicated aircraft reconnaissance gradually declined, and was roughly balanced by increased operational reliance on satellite reconnaissance, thanks to the Dvorak intensity estimates.…”

Section: Fig 3 Primary Dvorak Cloud Patterns In Relation Tomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This enables forecasters to more directly estimate TC intensity with the empirical Dvorak patterns (Guard 2004). In studies such as Cocks et al (1999) and Edson and Lander (2002), MI patterns have been compared with similar Dvorak patterns through the entire TC life cycle.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Velden¹,

Harper²,

Wells³

et al. 2006

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

326

200

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Pacific, Indian Ocean and Southern hemisphere TCs are observed by a variety of agencies, each of which maintains its own database (Guard et al 1992). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) coordinates data collection and publishes best tracks.…”

Section: Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tc Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…North Indian Ocean observations began in the 1970s, South Pacific and South Indian observations in 1985. Prior to the launch of MeteoSat-7 in 1997, satellite data availability and coverage in the Indian basins was insufficient with a considerable viewing gap in the South Indian Ocean and a frequent oblique viewing angle in both Indian basins (Guard et al 1992;Knapp and Kossin 2007;). …”

Section: Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tc Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?

Grossmann

Morgan

2011

Climatic Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The question of whether and to what extent global warming may be changing tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of great interest to decision makers. The presence of a possible climate change signal in TC activity is difficult to detect because interannual variability necessitates analysis over longer time periods than available data allow. Projections of future TC activity are hindered by computational limitations and uncertainties about changes in regional climate, large scale patterns, and TC response. This review discusses the state of the field in terms of theory, modeling studies and data. While Atlantic TCs have recently become more intense, evidence for changes in other basins is not persuasive, and changes in the Atlantic cannot be clearly attributed to either natural variability or climate change. However, whatever the actual role of climatic change, these concerns have opened a "policy window" that, if used appropriately, could lead to improved protection against TCs.

show abstract

Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Challenges of Multibasin Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Cited by 35 publications

References 0 publications

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009’s Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009’s Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About