Joint modelling of annual maximum drought severity and corresponding duration

Tosunoğlu, Fatih; Kisi, Özgür

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.018

Cited by 48 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…TLM was originally called 'Crossing Theory Techniques" and it is also referred to as run-sum analysis (Hisdal et al, 2004;Nordin and Rosbjerg, 1970;Şen, 2015). Usually different values are used to define the threshold in hydrological drought analysis by the TLM approach (Tosunoglu and Kisi, 2016). In this study, two demand scenarios, approached as "threshold levels", were used in the mean daily-monthly discharge data.…”

Section: Sdf Curve Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Arias

Mohor

Taffarello

et al. 2017

Preprint

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10Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning 11 strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, actions to manage 12 the drought risk impacts entail great complexity, such as the calculation of economic losses The model framework is applied to the Cantareira Water Supply System for Sao Paulo 27Metropolitan Region, Brazil, with severe vulnerability to droughts. By using hydrological

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Section: Sdf Curve Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Arias

Mohor

Taffarello

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…Sadri and Burn (2014) used Archimedean copulas namely Clayton, Frank and Gumbel copula for joint modeling of drought duration and severity extracted from monthly stream flow from 36 non-regulated sites in the Canadian Prairies. Recently Tosunoglu and Kisi (2016) used Archimedean copulas for joint modeling of annual maximum severity (AMS) and corresponding duration (CD) in Coruh basin, Turkey. They showed that Gumbel copula is the most suitable model for joint modeling of the AMS and Cd series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial hydrological drought characteristics in Karkheh River basin, southwest Iran using copulas

et al. 2017

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Investigation on drought characteristics such as severity, duration, and frequency is crucial for water resources planning and management in a river basin. While the methodology for multivariate drought frequency analysis is well established by applying the copulas, the estimation on the associated parameters by various parameter estimation methods and the effects on the obtained results have not yet been investigated. This research aims at conducting a comparative analysis between the maximum likelihood parametric and non-parametric method of the Kendall τ estimation method for copulas parameter estimation. The methods were employed to study joint severity-duration probability and recurrence intervals in Karkheh River basin (southwest Iran) which is facing severe water-deficit problems. Daily streamflow data at three hydrological gauging stations (Tang Sazbon, Huleilan and Polchehr) near the Karkheh dam were used to draw flow duration curves (FDC) of these three stations. The Q 75 index extracted from the FDC were set as threshold level to abstract drought characteristics such as drought duration and severity on the basis of the run theory. Drought duration and severity were separately modeled using the univariate probabilistic distributions and gamma-GEV, LN2-exponential, and LN2gamma were selected as the best paired drought severity-duration inputs for copulas according to the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square tests. Archimedean Clayton, Frank, and extreme value Gumbel copulas were employed to construct joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDF) of droughts for each station. Frank copula at Tang Sazbon and Gumbel at Huleilan and Polchehr stations were identified as the best copulas based on the performance evaluation criteria including AIC, BIC, log-likelihood and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Based on the RMSE values, nonparametric Kendall-τ is preferred to the parametric maximum likelihood estimation method. The results showed greater drought return periods by the parametric ML method in comparison to the nonparametric Kendall τ estimation method. The results also showed that stations located in tributaries (Huleilan and Polchehr) have close return periods, while the station along the main river (Tang Sazbon) has the smaller return periods for the drought events with identical drought duration and severity.

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“…His main contribution was the use of copula functions to model the complex dependence of drought characteristics. Copulas are functions capable of modeling the dependency structure flexibly by not restricting the use of the same distribution for its marginals [25][26][27][28], and many applications were applied all over the world [29][30][31][32][33][34], primarily on a punctual approach.The limitation of the punctual approach is its focus on a local region, but the occurrence of drought may cover large areas. Thus, regional analysis has proven to be more efficient for drought management than the punctual approach [35,36].…”

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confidence: 99%

Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil

Filho

Martins

et al. 2020

Water

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The 2012–2018 drought was such an extreme event in the drought-prone area of Northeast Brazil that it triggered a discussion about proactive drought management. This paper aims at understanding the causes and consequences of this event and analyzes its frequency. A consecutive sequence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, at both the decadal and interannual scales, led to this severe and persistent drought. Drought duration and severity were analyzed using run theory at the hydrographic region scale as decision-makers understand impact analysis better at this scale. Copula functions were used to properly model drought joint characteristics as they presented different marginal distributions and an asymmetric behavior. The 2012–2018 drought in Ceará State had the highest mean bivariate return period ever recorded, estimated at 240 years. Considering drought duration and severity simultaneously at the level of the hydrographic regions improves risk assessment. This result advances our understanding of exceptional events. In this sense, the present work proposes the use of this analysis as a tool for proactive drought planning.

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Joint modelling of annual maximum drought severity and corresponding duration

Cited by 48 publications

References 59 publications

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

Spatial hydrological drought characteristics in Karkheh River basin, southwest Iran using copulas

Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil

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