Jet Stream‐Surface Tracer Relationships: Mechanism and Sensitivity to Source Region

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; Waugh, Darryn W.; Miller, Scot M.

doi:10.1029/2020gl090714

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Next, we look at the meridional gradients of χ 40−50 and T to determine whether the spatial pattern of gradient ratio ∂ ϕ χ 40−50 /∂ ϕ T agrees with dχ 40−50 /dT, as suggested by Equation 1. As the tracer emissions are zonally symmetric, the tracer concentrations are close to being zonally symmetric and highest at the latitudes of emission (see Figure 1 of Kerr et al (2021)). The meridional gradient of the tracer ∂ ϕ χ 40−50 is negative to the north and positive to the south of the emission region (Figure 1b).…”

Section: Idealized Passive Tracersmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…We analyze simulations of passive tracers with prescribed zonally symmetric emissions using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM, v12.0.2, Bey et al, 2001) analyzed by Kerr et al (2021). These simulations are driven by meteorological fields from the Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Analysis, Version 2 (MERRA-2) from 2008 to 2010, with a horizontal resolution of 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude (∼200 × 250 km) and 72 vertical levels.…”

Section: Geos-chem Idealized Tracersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we test the gradient ratio hypothesis first using idealized passive tracers from Kerr et al (2021) where chemistry is absent and the tracer-T relationships are determined solely by transport. Then we test it in realistic simulation of O 3 that includes temperature-dependent chemistry and emissions.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Surface Ozone‐Temperature Relationship: The Meridional Gradient Ratio Approximation

Zhang

Waugh

Kerr

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The daily variation of ground‐level ozone (O3), a harmful pollutant, is positively correlated with air temperature (T) in many midlatitude land regions in the summer. The observed temporal regression slope between O3 and T (dO3/dT) is referred to as the “ozone‐climate change penalty” and has been proposed as a way to predict the impact of future climate warming on O3 from observations. Here, we use two chemical transport models to show that the spatial variation of dO3/dT is primarily determined by simultaneous meridional advection of O3 and T. Furthermore, the sign and magnitude of dO3/dT can be approximated by their climatological meridional gradient ratio (O3 gradient divided by T gradient). Consideration of expected changes in the meridional gradients of T and O3 due to climate change indicates that dO3/dT will likely change. Caution is needed when using the observed climate penalty to predict O3 changes.

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Section: Idealized Passive Tracersmentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Geos-chem Idealized Tracersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Surface Ozone‐Temperature Relationship: The Meridional Gradient Ratio Approximation

Zhang

Waugh

Kerr

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Torres et al (2019) report similar findings using CO2 observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Kerr et al (2020Kerr et al ( , 2021 further argue that daily, continental-scale variations of O3 are largely meteorology driven and are influenced by the meridional flow related to the jet stream. In the present study, we also find that transport plays a dominant role in trace gas (i.e., CH4) mixing ratios, albeit at annual instead of the daily/synoptic scales examined in the aforementioned studies.…”

Section: Local Meteorological Processes Correlate With Atmospheric Me...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorology, not emissions, helps explain an upward trend in atmospheric methane across the US

Feng

Tavakkoli

Jordaan

et al. 2022

Preprint

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US natural gas production increased by ˜43% between 2005 and 2015, but there is disagreement in the scientific literature on whether this growth led to increased methane emissions. In this study, we evaluate the possible contributions of emissions versus meteorology to an upward trend in US atmospheric methane observations during 2007-2015. We find that interannual variability (IAV) in meteorology yields an apparent upward trend in atmospheric methane across much of the US. We further find that IAV in atmospheric methane at several observation sites is correlated with IAV in local wind speed. Overall, our results show that US trends in atmospheric methane largely reflect variability in meteorology, and are unlikely to be a direct reflection of trends in emissions. The results of this study therefore lend support for the conclusion that there was little upward trend in US methane emissions during this time.

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Linking air stagnation in Europe with the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Maddison

Ábalos

Barriopedro

et al. 2021

Preprint

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<div>Air stagnation refers to a period when a stable air mass becomes settled over a region and remains quasi-stationary for an extended amount of time. Weak winds in the lower- to mid-troposphere and the absence of precipitation during air stagnation prohibit the ventilation and washout of particles so pollutants can accumulate near the surface. This allows for such pollutants to reach levels harmful to humans, and poses severe health risks. Understanding the development of stagnant conditions is therefore crucial for studying poor air quality and its societal impact.&#160;</div><p><br>Here, the linear relationship between European air stagnation and the large-scale circulation is explored across all seasons and during the 1979--2018 period. Dynamical based indices identifying atmospheric blocking, Rossby wave breaking, subtropical ridges, and the North Atlantic eddy-driven and subtropical jets are used to describe the large-scale circulation as predictors in a statistical model of air stagnation variability. It is found that the large-scale circulation can explain approximately 60% of the variance in monthly air stagnation in five distinct regions within Europe. The variance explained by the model does not vary strongly across regions and seasons. However, the dynamical indices most related to air stagnation do depend on region and season. The blocking and Rossby wave breaking predictors tend to be the most important for describing air stagnation variability in northern regions whereas ridges and the subtropical jet are more important to the south. The demonstrated correspondence between air stagnation and the large-scale circulation can be used to assess the representation of air stagnation in climate models, which is key for understanding how air quality and its associated health risks may change in the future.</p>

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Jet Stream‐Surface Tracer Relationships: Mechanism and Sensitivity to Source Region

Cited by 4 publications

References 36 publications

Surface Ozone‐Temperature Relationship: The Meridional Gradient Ratio Approximation

Surface Ozone‐Temperature Relationship: The Meridional Gradient Ratio Approximation

Meteorology, not emissions, helps explain an upward trend in atmospheric methane across the US

Linking air stagnation in Europe with the large-scale atmospheric circulation

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