Japan’s ‘Resentful Realism’ and Balancing China’s Rise

Abstract

Japan has long been regarded by mainstream International Relations theories as a status quo power intent on pursuing an immobilist international strategy towards China characterized by hedging rather than any move to active balancing. The article argues that the conditions that are thought to encourage hedging behaviour-the predictability of other states' intentions, the malleability of intentions through engagement, domestic preferences that obviate balancing, and a favourable offence-defence balance-are now deteriorating in the case of Japan's strategy towards China. The consequence is that evidence is mounting of Japan's shift towards active 'soft' and incipient 'hard' balancing of China through a policy of active 'encirclement' of China diplomatically, the build-up of Japanese national military capabilities aimed to counter China's access denial and power projection, and the strengthening of the US-Japan alliance. This shift has become particularly evident since the 2010 trawler incident, and the return to power in 2012 of Prime Minister Abe Shinz o. The consequences of Japan's shifting strategy are not yet clear. Japan may be moving towards a form of 'Resentful Realism' that does not add new equilibrium to regional security but is actually more destabilizing and poses risks for China and the USA, especially as Japan's own security intentions become more opaque. These conclusions, in turn, invite a reconsideration of the comfortable theoretical consensus on Japan as an eternal status quo power. Japan an Incipient Balancer vis-a-vis China's Rise?Might Japan's international strategy shift radically, or indeed is it already beginning a radical shift in response to China's rise? How might such a shift exert impact, long-term, on Sino-Japanese security relations, and US-led attempts to 'rebalance' the regional security order? Might Japanese 'Revisionist' governments even actively and overtly balance against China? Japan clearly maintains a fundamental interest in the rise of China, possible associated disturbances in the overall international system and East Asian regional order and,

Human Security after 15 Years: Some Introductory Remarks and Critical Reflections

“…China's development assistance has also been accused of working to promote its own national interests, establish security alliances, and undermine efforts by Western democracies to promote democracy, human rights, and good governance (Dreher and Fuchs 2015;Naim 2007;Tull 2006). As the rise of China continues, Japan has also witnessed transformation from a state characterized by commercial pacifism to one that shows an inclination toward realism (Hughes 2016;Green 2001). Japan has built its first aircraft carriers and currently plans to buy more advanced military aircraft (42 F-35s and 105 F-35As) over the next 10 years.…”

A flexibilidade do pacifismo japonês

“…Apesar de tais transformações nas políticas de segurança do arquipélago, a mudança significativa vivenciada pelo mesmo ocorreu com a ascensão de Shinzo Abe (2012-) ao poder e seus discursos que enfatizavam a necessidade do Japão se tornar um país normal e atuar regionalmente de forma mais ativa. Afinal, dissuasões com a China, receios com relação à Coreia do Norte e dúvidas sobre a capacidade e continuidade da proteção norte-americana se tornaram mais claros para as lideranças japonesas (HUGHES, 2016;SALTZMAN, 2015).…”

“…Todavia, apesar da "anomalia", que está se modificando no século XXI (SALTZMAN, 2015), o Japão era, e ainda é, um dos países com maior potencial militar do mundo e possui tais capacidades devido às suas Forças de Autodefesa (FAD) (HUGHES, 2016). E, do nosso ponto de vista, considerando a etimologia e ontologia do termo pacifismo, a existência de forças militares do arquipélago e sua evolução ao longo dos anos, que resulta das pressões do sistema e da insegurança diante de um cenário internacional anárquico, colocam em xeque seu dito pacifismo.…”

Japan's emerging arms transfer strategy: diversifying to re-centre on the US–Japan alliance

“…Japan increasingly perceives North Korea's nuclearisation and missile programmes as existential threats, and most acutely feels the implications of China's rise in regard to territorial disputes in the East China Sea and maritime security (Hughes 2016). Japan's security horizon has also been expanded beyond East Asia with its despatch of the JSDF to support the US 'war on terror' in the Indian Ocean after 9/11 and the reconstruction of Iraq in the early 2000s, as well ongoing commitments to anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden since 2009.…”