İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: 1988-2019 Dönemi Türkiye İncelemesi

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine the impacts on the economy of Turkey of inflation and unemployment that shape the economies of countries. In the study that included 1988 and 2019, Johansen Cointegration Test was carried out to determine whether there is any cointegration among the variables or not. It is determined that there is one cointegration equation between the series with Johansen Cointegration Test. After determining this relationship, the direction of the relationship between the variables was determined by Granger Causality Test and unilateral Granger causality has been observed between inflation-GDP, and inflation -unemployment. Finally, long-term coefficients were calculated by using FMOLS, CCR and DOLS methods. Also short term coefficient were calculated by using error correction model, and unemployment and inflation were determined to reduce GDP in the long term ve short term. According to the test results, inflation has triggered unemployment and both variables have a reducing effect on GDP. Increasing inflation and unemployment causes stagnation and decline in national economies. In order to avoid this negative result, policy makers should take steps to reduce inflation. In particular, production should be increased, new employment opportunities should be provided and monetary policies should be developed in line with market structures.

Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki İlişki: Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

“…Ulaşılan sonuçlar, işsizlik oranından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü ilişki bulan Göktaş Yılmaz (2005), Uysal ve Alptekin (2009), Eser Yılmaz (2014), Uçan ve Çebe (2018), Kopuk (2020); büyümenin işsizliği teşvik ettiğini tespit eden Kızılgöl (2006), Akcan ve Ener (2018); söz konusu değişkenler arasında ilişki olmadığı sonucuna ulaşan Turan (2015) ve Arı (2016)'nın aksine, Tiryaki ve Özkan (2011), Kanca (2012), Ümit ve Karataş (2018), Göçer (2015), Öztürk ve Sezen (2018), Yalçınkaya ve ark. (2018) tarafından yapılan çalışmaları destekler niteliktedir.…”

Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries

“…Adaramola and Dada (2020) in Nigeria, Khan and Khan (2018) in Bangladesh, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan, and Kasidi and Mwakanemela (2013) in Tanzania, argued that inflation has a negative effect on economic growth. According to Salih and Türk (2020), Kopuk (2020), and Gürel and Toker (2019), inflation affects growth negatively in Turkey. In addition, Karaçor, Özer, and Saraç (2011) and Pata (2017) found that there is a negative relationship between the variables in Turkey, both in the short and long run.…”