Island Epidemics

Cliff, Andrew; Haggett, Peter

doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0584-138

Cited by 29 publications

(23 citation statements)

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“…The period is slightly longer than τ 0 , since it includes the average time that a susceptible individual remains at state S, before being infected. Epidemiologically, the situation resembles the periodic epidemic patterns typical of large populations [3]. A mean field model of the system, expected to resemble the behavior at p = 1, can be easily shown to exhibit these oscillations.…”

Section: Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The dynamical behavior of an SIRS epidemiological model changes from an irregular, low-amplitude evolution at small p to a spontaneous state of wide amplitude oscillations at large p. This may be related to observed patterns in real epidemics [3], where an effect of the social structure is observed in the dynamics of the disease.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A great amount of work has been done on the phenomenological description of particular epidemic situations [1][2][3][4]. A classical mathematical approach to these problems deals with well mixed populations, where the subpopulations involved (typically susceptible, infected and removed) interact in proportion to their sizes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model

Kupennan¹,

Abramson²

2011

The Structure and Dynamics of Networks

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A model for the spread of an infection is analyzed for different population structures. The interactions within the population are described by small world networks, ranging from ordered lattices to random graphs. For the more ordered systems, there is a fluctuating endemic state of low infection. At a finite value of the disorder of the network, we find a transition to self-sustained oscillations in the size of the infected subpopulation.

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Section: Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model

Kupennan¹,

Abramson²

2011

The Structure and Dynamics of Networks

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“…5,34 Unlike dysentery, which was usually the first described epidemic disease after first contact, measles was generally the last highly lethal introduced infectious disease as sailing ships could not transit the Pacific within the 2-week incubation period of measles. Once steamships were introduced during the middle of the 19th century, live measles virus could be carried in nonimmune passengers to the Pacific islands within the incubation period.…”

Section: Dysentery Associated With Measles Epidemicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pacific islands were the last geographic points included in the global pathogen pool, and the admittedly fragmentary record of the earliest epidemics may offer insights into the mechanisms of mortality that presumably once existed for all human societies when they transitioned to live in interconnected populations. 5,6 Most of the highly lethal Pacific epidemics preceded the scientific revolution created by Pasteur's discovery of the microbiological nature of infectious diseases, and were described by the few literate observers in archaic terms. 3 Despite these limitations, the historical record offers the only definite information regarding potential explanations for the extraordinary mortality of first-contact epidemics.…”

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confidence: 99%

Lethality of First Contact Dysentery Epidemics on Pacific Islands

Shanks

2016

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Infectious diseases depopulated many isolated Pacific islands when they were first exposed to global pathogen circulation from the 18th century. Although the mortality was great, the lack of medical observers makes determination of what happened during these historical epidemics largely speculative. Bacillary dysentery caused by Shigella is the most likely infection causing some of the most lethal island epidemics. The fragmentary historical record is reviewed to gain insight into the possible causes of the extreme lethality that was observed during first-contact epidemics in the Pacific. Immune aspects of the early dysentery epidemics and postmeasles infection resulting in subacute inflammatory enteric disease suggest that epidemiologic isolation was the major lethality risk factor on Pacific islands in the 19th century. Other possible risk factors include human leukocyte antigen homogeneity from a founder effect and pathogen-induced derangement of immune tolerance to gut flora. If this analysis is correct, then Pacific islands are currently at no greater risk of emerging disease epidemics than other developing countries despite their dark history."It occasioned a great mortality-so much so, that the natives state, the living were not able to bury the dead." James Jarves, Hawaii.

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Modeling the spread of infectious disease in human populations

Sattenspiel

1990

Am. J. Phys. Anthropol.

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For the past 20 years, there has been an epidemic associated with the development of mathematical models to describe the spread of disease. This epidemic shows no signs yet of dying out. Four major topics related to this discipline are discussed here, including the following: 1) a n introduction to the basic assumptions and general framework common to most epidemic models; 2 ) a discussion of the major questions addressed by epidemic modelers; 3) a brief outline of several of the approaches used in the development of disease models; and 4) reviews of models that have been developed for influenza, malaria, and AIDS. The utility of these models and suggestions for contributions that anthropologists can make to this field are also discussed.Over the last few decades, the number of models developed to describe the spread of disease has been rapidly increasing. In 1975 Norman T. J. Bailey published the second edition of his classic review, The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases. The bibliography of this book documents 539 articles on mathematical epidemiology written between 1900 and 1973. Of these 539 papers, 336 (62%) were published between 1964 and 1973. The distribution of these papers by year is given in Figure 1 and looks remarkably like the beginning of an epidemic curve for a disease that is not transmitted easily, but that spreads rapidly once there is a critical number of infected individuals, Extrapolating this curve to include the years from 1974 to 1989 gives one an idea of the quantity of papers now to be found that incorporate some aspect of the development or analysis of mathematical models for disease spread.To avoid updating and expanding Bailey's 1975 monograph, this paper will review only models addressing the spread of human disease. However, because of the volume of these papers, only a select portion of the literature on human epidemic models will be included. First, there will be a discussion of the important biological and social factors that may be incorporated into epidemic models. Second, there will be a n overview of the major questions leading to the development of epidemic models. This will be followed by a review of the major approaches to the modeling of infectious diseases. Finally, applications of these approaches to three diseases-malaria, influenza, and AIDS-will be considered. The models developed for these diseases and the application of these models to actual populations contain much of interest to anthropologists. INTRODUCTlON TO EPIIIEMIC MODELSInfectious diseases are transmitted as a result of direct or indirect contact between a n infectious person and a susceptible person. Consequently, models for the transmission of infectious diseases in human populations must consider a t least these two types of individuals. The population size is usually assumed to be a constant, N , so that S + I = N , where S is the number of susceptible individuals and I is the number of infective individuals. Many models also assume that there is no migration and that there are no b...

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Island Epidemics

Cited by 29 publications

References 0 publications

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model

Small World Effect in an Epidemiological Model

Lethality of First Contact Dysentery Epidemics on Pacific Islands

Modeling the spread of infectious disease in human populations

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