Is this what a climate change-resilient population of marine turtles looks like?

Pérez, Elena Abella; Marco, Adolfo; Martins, Samir; Hawkes, Lucy A.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.11.023

Cited by 45 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Mean incubation temperatures measured at our study were similar to the values reported for Boa Vista, the primary loggerhead nesting island of Cape Verde (Abella Perez, Marco, Martins, & Hawkes, ), suggesting that the conclusions from our work can likely be extended more broadly across the Cape Verde islands. By deploying temperature loggers over a variety of beach locations, we captured inter‐ and intra‐beach variations and revealed that there was a fairly wide range of sand temperatures, and hence incubation temperatures, throughout the nesting season (Figure ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Climate change and temperature‐linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site

Laloë

Cozens²,

Renom³

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

102

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The study of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in vertebrates has attracted major scientific interest. Recently, concerns for species with TSD in a warming world have increased because imbalanced sex ratios could potentially threaten population viability. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the direct effects of increased temperatures on successful embryonic development. Using 6603 days of sand temperature data recorded across 6 years at a globally important loggerhead sea turtle rookery-the Cape Verde Islands-we show the effects of warming incubation temperatures on the survival of hatchlings in nests. Incorporating published data (n = 110 data points for three species across 12 sites globally), we show the generality of relationships between hatchling mortality and incubation temperature and hence the broad applicability of our findings to sea turtles in general. We use a mechanistic approach supplemented by empirical data to consider the linked effects of warming temperatures on hatchling output and on sex ratios for these species that exhibit TSD. Our results show that higher temperatures increase the natural growth rate of the population as more females are produced. As a result, we project that numbers of nests at this globally important site will increase by approximately 30% by the year 2100. However, as incubation temperatures near lethal levels, the natural growth rate of the population decreases and the long-term survival of this turtle population is threatened. Our results highlight concerns for species with TSD in a warming world and underline the need for research to extend from a focus on temperature-dependent sex determination to a focus on temperature-linked hatchling mortalities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Climate change and temperature‐linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site

Laloë

Cozens²,

Renom³

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

102

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“…Adult males that are now mating with nesting females have hatched several decades ago. Hypothetical current bias on male production (Abella-Pérez et al, 2016) can have negative effects in the next decades.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-invasive monitoring of the fertilization rate in sea turtle nests: comparison between two techniques

Abella¹,

García-Cerdá

Marco

2017

bah

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Egg fertilization rate is a defining event in the life history of oviparous species. However, for many terrestrial oviparous species, this parameter is only estimated after hatching and emergence of hatchlings, by studying evidence of embryonic development in unhatched eggs. We compared the accuracy of this method with a second technique based on the careful excavation of sea turtle nests within the first 96 hours of oviposition and calculating the proportion of alive eggs, where a clear white spot is externally visible in the shell. Both methods underestimate the fertility rate but we are not aware of any other alternative on-invasive technique. The study was conducted in a nesting population of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) at Boa Vista Island (Republic of Cabo Verde). We found significant differences in the estimation of fertilization rate between both techniques. When inspecting eggs after hatching, researchers significantly overestimated the number of unfertilized eggs and this calculation was not correlated with the estimation based on examination of eggs soon after oviposition. The first estimate was not correlated with hatching success or hatchling phenotype. There was no relationship between the number of viable embryos at oviposition and the hatching success and the hatchling's phenotype. The absence of embryo or its early death had no effect on survival of developing embryos within a nest. Fertilization rate in loggerheads did not show spatial or temporal variation during nesting season. We suggest the implementation in sea turtle nesting monitoring programs of annual less-invasive estimation of egg fertilization rate based on the excavation of a sample of representative nests immediately after the formation of the white spot in the shell of developing embryos.

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“…Here, we apply and extend a vulnerability framework originally posited by Abella Perez et al. (), to make a comprehensive assessment of climate change resistance in a globally important green turtle population, to the end of this century, and make inference as to the resilience capacity of this population. We make an empirically based assessment of resistance to climate change in marine turtles, a key research priority (Rees et al., ), which could form an excellent blueprint for comparative studies within and among taxa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Integrated assessments of climate change resilience, considering a broad range of impacts and adaptive potential, will enable managers to prioritize conservation efforts, and use realistic measures to mitigate threats. More often, climate change-induced threats are considered independently (but see Abella Perez, Marco, Martins, & Hawkes, 2016;Butt, Whiting, & Dethmers, 2016;Fuentes, Pike, Dimatteo, & Wallace, 2013). Here, we apply and extend a vulnerability framework originally posited by Abella Perez et al (2016), to make a comprehensive assessment of climate change resistance in a globally important green turtle population, to the end of this century, and make inference as to the resilience capacity of this population.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Patrício

Varela

Barbosa

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

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Is this what a climate change-resilient population of marine turtles looks like?

Cited by 45 publications

References 59 publications

Climate change and temperature‐linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site

Climate change and temperature‐linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site

Non-invasive monitoring of the fertilization rate in sea turtle nests: comparison between two techniques

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

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