Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break

Dülger, Fikret; Lopcu, Kenan; Burgaç, Almıla; Ballı, Esra

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.09.006

Cited by 38 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The most striking examples of this are, first and foremost, Russia but also Kazakhstan, albeit to a lesser extent, where, as is clearly visible, the natural resource sector is nurtured, controlled, and subsidized by state authorities. As a consequence, it further strengthens the negative effects of the so-called "Dutch disease", which is the overexploitation of natural resources (mostly the energy ones), owing to the relatively easy acquisition of extra budget revenues (taxes on their extraction and export), which in turn leads to stifled progress and falling competitiveness of other sectors of the economies of these two states (more on this subject: Falkowski [2017b]; Mironov and Petronevich [2015]; Dülger et al [2013]). The analysis has shown that, paradoxically, the two largest EAEU economies, Russia and Kazakhstan, have a relatively low level of competitiveness in contemporary international trade, given their economic potential.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Comparative Advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in International Trade

Falkowski

2017

International Journal of Management and Economics

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On 1st January 2015 the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) -a new integration block comprising initially Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and later that year also Armenia and Kyrgyzstan -appeared on the world map. This paper endeavors to identify the EAEU countries' long-term international comparative advantages within four basic groups of goods according to the OECD classification of manufacturing industries based on technology intensity. The analysis, using B. Balassa's RCA methodology and covering the years 2000-2014, indicates that these countries lack competitiveness, with none of them possessing any RCAs in the high-technology category whereas in the medium-hightechnology category -only Belarus. In contrast, all the EAEU countries fared the best in the medium-low-technology category, which is mostly attributable to the resources-based character of their economies. Surprisingly, dramatically low international competitiveness was recorded by Kazakhstan and Russia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Comparative Advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in International Trade

Falkowski

2017

International Journal of Management and Economics

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“…those in Netherlands, Norway and even Indonesia. As Dülger et al (2013) pointed out, this is likely to make it more difficult for manufacturing and the rest of the non-oil sector to make up for oil revenues as an alternative source of finance and needed macroeconomic and fiscal stability when in the not-toodistant future, oil revenues will start to decline.…”

Section: Further Background On Azeri Oil Its Management Accomplishmmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dülger et al (2013), in turn, pointed to the role of currency appreciation in the decline of its manufacturing sector and the rise of mostly non-tradable services. In a related study for Kazakhstan, Azhgaliyeva (2014) shows that the real value of oil production raises real government expenditures but that the country's national oil fund mitigates that unwanted effect on real exchange rate appreciation to some extent.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

2017

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Abstract:To help explain the common failure of oil or other natural resource exporting countries to diversify into industry, it has been common to trace this failure to real exchange rate appreciation. This has also been done in Azerbaijan. However, because Azerbaijan has devoted so much of its oil revenues to government investment, Azerbaijan provides a suitable case for examining an alternative link through government investment. This study applies the ARDL cointegration method to quarterly time series data on oil prices, government capital formation, non-oil exports and non-oil GDP to estimate the long run relationships linking oil prices to government investment expenditures and further to generation of non-oil GDP. The results show that despite the massive government investment expenditures, extremely little non-oil production of the tradable type has been generated, calling attention to the need for policy reform.

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“…The models used for testing Dutch disease in Australia are based on Algieri () and Dülger et al. () which involves testing for the following symptoms of Dutch disease and the effect of the mining boom on deindustrialisation. Descriptions of the data and relevant econometric methodologies are outlined in Appendix A1.…”

Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining Dutch disease across Australian regions

et al. 2018

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The recent mining boom represents one of the largest external shocks to the Australian economy in its post‐war history. Although most agree that it had a positive effect on the Australian economy as well as on people’s living standards, there is disagreement over the extent to which this boom has caused deindustrialisation and the so‐called Dutch disease in Australia. Our empirical findings support the presence of Dutch disease nationally for Australia using data for the period 1984–2013. Regionally, the results show that Dutch disease was concentrated mainly in the eastern and southern states of Australia—Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.

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Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break

Cited by 38 publications

References 25 publications

Long-Term Comparative Advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in International Trade

Long-Term Comparative Advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in International Trade

Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?

Examining Dutch disease across Australian regions

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