Is Assertiveness Paying the Bill? China’s Domestic Audience Costs in the South China Sea Disputes

Abstract

China's assertiveness in the South China Sea has drawn international attention, especially in the past decade. Yet China has not always resorted to assertive foreign policy. Efforts to de-escalate tension are evident despite the domestic preference for tougher action. This study centres on a question: what makes for China's assertiveness. I argue that China's assertive foreign policy originates in leaders' domestic consideration. Utilizing audience costs theory I focus on two assumptions that need to be relaxed: unitary domestic audiences and consistency in leaders' crisis behaviour. China's non-unitary domestic audiences, namely the elites and public, have different interests, although they share support for assertiveness in the South China Sea. Domestic audiences can tolerate inconsistency insofar as leaders are able to justify their decision, that is, to de-escalate the South China Sea disputes without dropping assertiveness. Foreign policy decision-making in China remains somewhat opaque, but domestic audiences can influence the process albeit not directly. In this regard, China's assertiveness serves to generate audience costs so as to underpin regime legitimacy.

A Critical Assessment of China’s Role in the South China Sea Dispute

“…Lying astride one of the world's most important trade routes, the South China Sea holds invaluable, yet largely untapped natural resources, with hydrocarbons (i.e., oil and gas) as the highprofile component. The insatiable demand for marine resources adds to the salience of this body of water (Ramadhani, 2019). With the increasing dispute, some countries act out of the coverage of the international maritime law.…”