Irregular Recurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the San Andreas Fault: Evidence from Trees

Jacoby, Gordon C.; Sheppard, Paul R.; Sieh, Kerry

doi:10.1126/science.241.4862.196

Cited by 138 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Similar aperiodic behavior was reported along the Dead Sea Fault zone [Marco et al, 1996]. Other examples of long-term analysis of seismic activity using historical catalogs [Ambraseys, 1989;Vere-Jones and Ozaki, 1982;Xu and Deng, 1996;Goes, 1996], paleoseismologic data [Jacoby et al, 1998;Grant and Sieh, 1995;Marco et al, 1996;Wells et al, 1999], geomorphological data [Ritz et al, 2003], or geodesic and geologic data [Friedrich et al, 2003] show that periods of activity can alternate with periods of quiescence along a single fault or a group of faults and that many fault zones exhibit temporal earthquake clustering [Pirazzoli et al, 1996]. These observations suggest that a representative record of the long-term behavior of a fault zone may require a knowledge of all strong earthquakes over period exceeding 10,000 years [ Van der Woerd et al, 2002].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…[3] Historical earthquake records [Ambraseys, 1989;Vere-Jones and Ozaki, 1982;Xu and Deng, 1996;Goes, 1996] and paleoseismologic data [Jacoby et al, 1998;Grant and Sieh, 1995;Marco et al, 1996;Wells et al, 1999] have, however, shown that earthquake recurrence time and earthquake-related slip on a given fault can show great variations. These variations are yet poorly understood though several models predict irregular behavior [Bak and Tang, 1989;Carlson and Langer, 1989;Ben-Zion, 1996;Shaw and Rice, 2000].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Irregular earthquake cycle along the southern Tianshan front, Aksu area, China

et al. 2005

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[1] A long deformation record ($16.5 ka) showing nonsteady earthquake recurrence is established for the Aksu thrust (Tianshan, China) on the basis of cosmogenic 10 Be dating of faulted surfaces. Topographic leveling across the Aksu fault scarp indicates up to $10 m uplift across a moraine abandoned $16.5 ka and similar uplift of $6 m across two inset surfaces yielding ages of $12.5 and $5 ka. Successively smaller uplifts of terraces younger than 5 ka indicate that three or more major earthquakes occurred during this period. These data show that the Aksu thrust fault was quiet for at least 7500 years and active in the last $5000 years and probably in the interval 16.5-12.5 ka. The seismic cycle along the Aksu thrust fault over the last $16,500 years was thus strongly irregular showing long quiescence and clustering, which is a challenge for paleoseismology and hazard assessment. This irregularity also makes it more difficult to estimate long-term shortening rates. Nevertheless, we are able to constrain a minimum total shortening rate (>7 mm/yr) across the southern Tianshan front for the last 12,500 years that is about a third of the total geodetic rate for the western Tianshan ($20 mm/yr).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irregular earthquake cycle along the southern Tianshan front, Aksu area, China

et al. 2005

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“…As a result, tree rings have extensively been used to study century-old earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault in California or in the Seattle region (Jacoby et al, 1988(Jacoby et al, , 1992Jacoby, 1997). More recently, Bekker (2004) has analyzed spatial differences in the response of trees to normal faulting in relation with the Hebgen Lake earthquake.…”

Section: What Natural Hazards Processes Are Analyzed With Tree Rings?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-ring analysis in natural hazards research – an overview

Stoffel

Bollschweiler

2008

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

391

207

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Abstract. The understanding of geomorphic processes and knowledge of past events are important tasks for the assessment of natural hazards. Tree rings have on varied occasions proved to be a reliable tool for the acquisition of data on past events. In this review paper, we provide an overview on the use of tree rings in natural hazards research, starting with a description of the different types of disturbances by geomorphic processes and the resulting growth reactions. Thereafter, a summary is presented on the different methods commonly used for the analysis and interpretation of reactions in affected trees. We illustrate selected results from dendrogeomorphological investigations of geomorphic processes with an emphasis on fluvial (e.g., flooding, debris flows) and mass-movement processes (e.g., landslides, snow avalanche), where lots of data have been generated over the past few decades. We also present results from rockfall and permafrost studies, where data are much scarcer, albeit data from tree-ring studies have proved to be of great value in these fields as well.Most studies using tree rings have focused on alpine environments in Europe and North America, whereas other parts of the world have been widely neglected by dendrogeomorphologists so far. We therefore challenge researchers to focus on other regions with distinct climates as well, to look on less frequently studied processes as well and to broaden and improve approaches and methods commonly used in tree-ring research so as to allow a better understanding of geomorphic processes, natural hazards and risk.

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“…For example, the sudden and pronounced suppressions following defoliation are often an integral part of reconstructing insect outbreak events (Swetnam et al 1985;Veblen et al 1991b;Speer et al 2001;Davis et al 2007). Suppression criteria have also been applied to identify the frequency of canopydamaging storm events in the forests of the eastern United States (Orwig et al 2001;Lafon and Speer 2002), and root-damaging earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault (Jacoby et al 1988). In these situations, release often represents a growth rebound that occurs several years after the damage has occurred.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disturbance History of a Mixed Conifer Stand in Central Idaho, USA

et al. 2008

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We apply a combination of suppression and release criteria to reconstruct the disturbance history of a ponderosa pine -Douglas-fir stand in central Idaho. In this stand, disturbance, likely fire, induced growth releases in some trees, and sudden, severe suppressions in others. To characterize growth release following disturbance, we developed boundary-line release criteria for Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine. Suppression criteria were applied to identify disturbances defined as a growth reduction of more than 1.8 standard deviations sustained for a minimum of five years. To prevent confusing a true release event with growth increases associated with recovery from suppression, release events were not tallied for at least fifteen years following a suppression event. Release and suppression events were combined to create a disturbance chronology characterized by a high frequency of disturbance between 1820 and 1920. This period of disturbance likely reflects post-European settlement land uses such as grazing and logging as well as an increase in fire frequency. Fire suppression in the latter part of the 20 th Century likely explains the decrease in disturbance after 1940. We believe that a combination of release as well as suppression criteria best describes the disturbance history of this stand.

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Irregular Recurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the San Andreas Fault: Evidence from Trees

Cited by 138 publications

References 8 publications

Irregular earthquake cycle along the southern Tianshan front, Aksu area, China

Irregular earthquake cycle along the southern Tianshan front, Aksu area, China

Tree-ring analysis in natural hazards research – an overview

Disturbance History of a Mixed Conifer Stand in Central Idaho, USA

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