[1] Geological and geomorphological offsets at different scales are used to constrain the localization of deformation, total displacement, and slip rates over various timescales along the central and eastern North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in Turkey. The NAF total displacement is reevaluated using large rivers valleys (80 ± 15 km) and structural markers (Pontide Suture, 85 ± 25 km; Tosya-Vezirköprü basins, 80 ± 10 km). These suggest a Neogene slip rate of 6.5 mm/yr over 13 Myr. The river network morphology shows offsets at a range of scales (20 m to 14 km) across the main fault trace and is also used to estimate the degree to which deformation is localized. At a smaller scale the morphology associated with small rivers is offset by 200 m along the NAF. The age of these features can be correlated with the Holocene deglaciation and a slip rate of 18 ± 3.5 mm/yr is determined. This is consistent with a rate of 18 ± 5 mm/yr deduced independently from the 14 C dating of stream terrace offsets. Over the short term, GPS data gives a similar rate of 22 ± 3 mm/yr. All our results tend to show that most of the deformation between the Anatolian and Eurasian lithospheric plates has been accommodated along, or very close to, the active trace of the NAF. The difference between the Neogene and the Holocene slip rate may be due to the recent establishment of the current plate geometry after the creation of the NAF.

[1] We explore the kinematic mechanisms of active large-scale folding, based on analysis of two adjacent major anticlines in Tian Shan (central Asia) that share an acceleration of shortening rate leading to topographic emergence and folded geomorphic surfaces. Their folding mechanisms are fundamentally different. Yakeng anticline is a gentle pure shear detachment fold with 1200 m of shortening and a well-constrained history of growth beginning at 5.5 Ma with an order-of-magnitude increase in shortening rate from 0.16 to $1.2-1.6 mm/yr at $0.16-0.21 Ma. The shape of the deformed topographic surface and of subsurface horizons deposited during deformation is a linearly proportional image at reduced amplitude of the deeper structure, which shows that instantaneous uplift rates have been pointwise linearly proportional to the current finite fold amplitude. In contrast, Quilitak anticline is a complex fault bend fold with uplift rates proportional to the sine of the fault dip, showing discontinuities in uplift rate across active axial surfaces. The 10-to 20-km-wide anticline is topographically emergent only in a central 5-to 7-km-wide mountainous uplift, the abrupt southern edge of which is marked by $600-to 700-m-high triangular facets that result from active folding of a pediment across an active axial surface. The giant facets are shown to form by kink band migration and record postemergence deformation since an order-of-magnitude acceleration in shortening rate from $0.6 to $4-5 mm/yr, apparently contemporaneous with Yakeng. Sections logged across the active $115-m-wide hinge zone show that recent strata provide a bedby-bed record of fold scarp growth, which is quantitatively deciphered by fitting bed shapes to a finite width kink band migration model.

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length. Models of earthquake-induced stress change combined with active fault maps had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.

SUMMARY The evolution of the Gulf of Aden and the Anatolian Fault systems are modelled using the principles of elastic fracture mechanics usually applied to smaller scale cracks or faults. The lithosphere is treated as a plate, and simple boundary conditions are applied that correspond to the known plate boundary geometry and slip vectors. The models provide a simple explanation for many observed geological features. For the Gulf of Aden the model predicts why the ridge propagated from east to west from the Owen Fracture Zone towards the Afar and the overall form of its path. The smaller en echelon offsets can be explained by upward propagation from the initially created mantle dyke while the larger ones may be attributed to the propagating rupture interacting with pre‐existing structures. For Anatolia the modelling suggests that the East Anatolian Fault was created before the North Anatolian Fault could form. Once both faults were formed however, activity could switch between them. The time scales over which this should take place are not known, but evidence for switching can be found in the historical seismicity. For Aden and Anatolia pre‐existing structures or inhomogeneous stress fields left from earlier orogenic events have modified the processes of propagation and without an understanding of the existence of such features the propagation processes cannot be fully understood. Furthermore a propagating fault can extend into an active region where it would not have initiated. The North Anatolian Fault encountered slow but active extension when it entered the Aegean about 5 Ma and the stress field associated with the extending fault has progressively modified Aegean extension. In the central Aegean activity has been reduced while to the north‐west on features such as the Gulfs of Evvia and Corinth activity has been increased. The field observation that major structures propagate and the success of simple elastic models suggest that the continental crust behaves in an elastic‐brittle or elastic‐plastic fashion even though laboratory tests may be interpreted to suggest viscous behaviour. There are major problems in scaling from the behaviour of small homogeneous samples to the large heterogeneous mantle and large‐scale observations should be treated more seriously than extrapolations of the behaviour of laboratory experiments over many orders of magnitude in space and time. The retention of long‐term elasticity and localised failure suggests a similar gross rheology for the oceanic and continental lithospheres. Even though it is incorrect to attribute differences in behaviour to the former being rigid (i.e. elastic) and the latter viscous, oceanic and continental lithosphere behave in different ways. Unlike oceanic crust, continental crust is buoyant and cannot be simply created or destroyed. The process of thickening or thinning works against gravity preventing large displacements on extensional or contractional features in the upper mantle. The equivalents of ridge or subduction systems are suppressed before th...

International audienceThe Gulf of Corinth is one of the fastest-spreading intra-continental rifts on Earth. GPS data indicate that the rift is currently opening in a NNE-SSW direction, with a rate of extension reaching up to 16 mm yr (super - 1) in its westernmost part. Although the rest of the offshore rift has been well studied, the western tip of the rift is still poorly explored. We present an accurate map of submarine faults in this area based on two high-resolution seismic reflection surveys (single-channel sparker). In the eastern part of the studied area, the sedimentary infill is affected by the known North Eratini, South Eratini, and West Channel faults. Further to the west, the seafloor is mostly flat and is bounded to the north by the normal, south-dipping, Trizonia fault. To the north, the shallower part of the Gulf shows to the east a diffuse pattern of normal and strike-slip deformation, which is replaced to the west by a 7.5 km long SE striking strike-slip fault zone, called the Managouli fault zone. To the westernmost tip of the Gulf, in the Nafpaktos Basin, two fault sets with different strikes are encountered; the one with a NE-SW strike exhibits a clear strike-slip component. The western tip of the Gulf of Corinth is the only part of the Corinth Rift where convincing evidence for strike-slip movement has been found. This fault pattern is likely related to the complex deformation occurring at the diffuse junction at the western tip of the Rift between three crustal blocks: Continental Greece, Peloponnese, and the Ionian Island-Akarnania block

The deformation and 40Ar–39Ar dating of recent volcanism, that remarkably sits across the North Anatolian Fault eastern termination in Turkey, together with previous studies, put strong constraints on the long-term evolution of the fault. We argue that after a first phase of 10 Ma, characterized by a slip rate of about 3 mm/a, and during which most of the trace was established, the slip rate jumped to about 20 mm/a on average over the last 2.5 Ma, without substantial increase of the fault length. The transition correlates with a change in the geometry at the junction with the East Anatolian Fault that makes the extrusion process more efficient.

Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. ABSTRACTThe Nankai-Suruga Trough, the subduction zone that lies immediately south of Japan's densely populated southern coastline, generates devastating great earthquakes (magnitude > 8) characterised by intense shaking, crustal deformation and tsunami generation. Forecasting the hazards associated with future earthquakes along this >700 km long fault requires a comprehensive understanding of past fault behaviour. While the region benefits from a long and detailed historical record, palaeoseismology has the potential to provide a longer-term perspective and additional crucial insights. In this paper, we summarise the current state of knowledge regarding geological evidence for past earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai-Suruga Trough. Incorporating literature originally published in both Japanese and English and enhancing available results with new age modelling approaches, we summarise and critically evaluate evidence from a wide variety of sources. Palaeoseismic evidence includes uplifted marine terraces and biota, marine and lacustrine turbidites, liquefaction features, subsided marshes and tsunami deposits in coastal lakes and lowlands. While 75 publications describe proposed evidence from more than 70 sites, only a limited number provide compelling, well-dated evidence. The best available records enable us to map the most likely rupture zones of twelve earthquakes that occurred during the historical period. This spatiotemporal compilation suggests that the AD 1707 earthquake ruptured almost the full length of the subduction zone and that earthquakes in AD 1361 and 684 may have been predecessors of similar magnitude. Intervening earthquakes were of lesser magnitude, highlighting the variability in rupture mode that characterises the Nankai-Suruga Trough. Intervals between ruptures of the same seismic segment range from less than 100 to more than 450 years during the historical period. Over longer timescales, palaeoseismic evidence suggests intervals between earthquakes ranging from 100 to 700 years, however these figures reflect a range of thresholds controlling the creation and preservation of evidence at any given site as well as the genuine intervals between earthquakes. At present, there is no geological data that suggest the occurrence of a larger magnitude earthquake than that experienced in AD 1707, however few studies have sought to establish the relative magnitudes of different earthquake and tsunami events along the Nankai-Suruga Trough. Alongside the lack of...

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a right‐lateral plate boundary fault that arcs across northern Turkey for ∼1500 km. Almost the entire fault progressively ruptured in the 20th century, its cascading style indicating that stress from one fault rupture triggers fault rupture of adjacent segments. Using published paleoseismic investigations, this study integrates all of the existing information about the timing of paleoearthquakes on the NAF. Paleoseismic investigation data are compiled into a database, and for each site a Bayesian, ordering‐constrained age model is constructed in a consistent framework. Spatial variability of recurrence intervals suggests a spatial pattern in the behavior of earthquakes on the NAF that may correspond to the tectonic provinces within the Anatolian plate. In the west, the shear stress associated with the escaping Anatolian plate interplays with the tensile stress associated with the Aegean extensional province. Along this western transtensional section we recognize short recurrence intervals and switching between the furcated fault strands. The central section of the NAF is translational with little influence of fault‐normal stresses from other tectonic sources. This section tends to rupture in unison or close succession. The eastern section of the NAF is transpressional due to the compressional fault‐normal stress associated with the indenting Arabian plate. Along this section the recurrence intervals are bimodal, which we attribute to variable normal stress, although there are other possible causes.