Ionospheric specification and forecasting based on observations from European ionosondes participating in DIAS project

2015

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This paper discusses recent advances in the implementation and validation of the Solar Wind driven autoregression model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF) that is running in the European Digital upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS) to release ionospheric forecasting products for the European region. The upgraded implementation plan expands SWIF's capabilities in the high latitude ionosphere while the extensive validation tests in the two solar cycles 23 and 24 allow the comprehensive analysis of the model's performance in all terms. Focusing on disturbed conditions, the results demonstrate that SWIF's alert detection algorithm forecasts the occurrence of ionospheric storm time disturbances with probability of detection up to 98% under intense geomagnetic storm conditions and up to 63% when storms of moderate intensity are also considered. The forecasts show relative improvement over climatology of about 30% in middle-to-low and high latitudes and 40% in middle-to-high latitudes. This indicates that SWIF is able to capture on average more than one third (35%) of the storm-associated ionospheric disturbances. Regarding the accuracy, the averaged mean relative error during storm conditions usually ranges around 20% in middle-tolow and high latitudes and 24% in the middle-to-high latitudes. Our analysis shows clearly that SWIF alert criteria were designed to effectively anticipate the ionospheric storm time effects that occurred under specific interplanetary conditions, e.g., cloud Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and/or associated sheaths. The results provide valuable input in advancing our ability in predicting the space weather effects in the ionosphere for future developments, and further work is proposed to enhance the model forecasting efficiency to support operational applications.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ionospheric forecasts for the European region for space weather applications

2015

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“…Kutiev et al (2009a) applied TSMP to Digisonde measurements to reconstruct the electron density profile from the F layer peak up to GNSS orbits developing the TaD model based on a new expression for the H + scale height in the plasmasphere (Hp) extracted from ISIS-1 topside sounder data, as a function of the geomagnetic latitude. TaD method is considered to be a powerful basis for the development of operational applications especially over regions covered by dense Digisonde networks, as, for example, the European middle latitude region covered by DIAS network (Belehaki et al 2006b;Belehaki et al 2007), but in principle, the successful transition from research to operational models requires among others the systematic assessment of the models' performance under all possible conditions . The evaluation of the TaD model's performance has been previously attempted in qualitative terms by Belehaki et al (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upgrades to the topside sounders model assisted by Digisonde (TaD) and its validation at the topside ionosphere

Kutiev

et al. 2012

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This paper presents a series of improvements made in the Topside Sounders Model assisted by Digisonde (TaD), verification results on these improvements, and its validation at the topside part of the profile. The TaD is based on the simple empirical functions for the O + /H + transition height (h T ), the topside electron density scale height (H T ), and their ratio, based on the Alouette/ISIS database. From its first release, published some years ago, TaD offers analytical formulas for obtaining the shape of the vertical plasma distribution in the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere. This first version of the TaD model (TaDv1) is using Digisonde measured parameters of the F layer maximum density, its height, and its scale height to specify the profiler's characteristics at its lower boundary. TaDv1 models separately the O + and H + density profiles, providing the H + scale height in the plasmasphere, extracted from ISIS-1 topside sounder data, as a function of geomagnetic latitude. The upgraded version of TaD (TaDv2) provides calculation of O + , H + , and He + density distributions in transition region between topside F region and plasmasphere, extracted from the analysis of the electron density profiles from ISIS-1, and in addition approximates the plasmaspheric scale height as a function of altitude, latitude, local time, and season using an optimization procedure to achieve best fit with the measured profiles. These improvements, which concern the part of the profile above the transition height, are presented in detail in the first part of the paper. In the second part we present statistical results for the verification of the model's improvements that show that the optimization procedure contributes to a reduction of the model error of more than two times. The model validation for the topside part of the profile is presented in the last part of this paper, comparing Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) electron density profiles (EDP) with the model reconstructed profiles. Comparison with measured EDP from ISR at middle latitudes gives a model error of 3TECU which is close to the GNSS measurement error. Further improvements of TaD reconstruction model are attempted in a followon paper, mainly targeted to the reliable operational implementation of the algorithm.

“…This is based on the analysis of ULF wave spectra measured by ACE magnetometer, and ULF oscillations measured by GOES magnetometers at geosynchronous orbit and by groundbased magnetometers distributed globally and it combines ground-based PiB geomagnetic pulsations with global ULF oscillations of Pc5 type (Degtyarev et al 2009;Degtyarev et al 2010;Potapov and Polyushkina 2010). SIRMUP (Zolesi et al 2004;Tsagouri et al 2005) is implemented online to provide nowcasting ionospheric products and services for the European region through DIAS system (Belehaki et al 2006b(Belehaki et al , 2007 and for the central Mediterranean area through the -Geomagnetic Indices Forecasting and Ionospheric Nowcasting Tools (GIFINT) services (http:// gifint.ifsi.rm.cnr.it/) that is integrated with the SWENET. In SIRMUP, the real-time values of foF2 at one location are determined from the SIRM model (Zolesi et al 1993) by using the effective sunspot number, R12eff, instead of R 12 .…”

Section: Geomagnetic Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

Bergeot

et al. 2013

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This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model's input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ''Improvement of operational models'' of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ''Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe'' and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.