Investigating local population dynamics of bottlenose dolphins in the northern Bahamas and the impact of hurricanes on survival

Abstract

Little Bahama Bank in the northern Bahamas supports several populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). We provide the first estimates of birth rate and age-class-specific apparent survival rates for the local South Abaco population using data from a long-term (1997–2014) photo-identification (photo-ID) study and use the estimated life history parameters in a population viability analysis (PVA) to predict future population trends. Hurricane events are predicted to become more intense due to climate change but knowledge of how hurricanes may impact cetacean populations is limited. Little Bahama Bank is subject to hurricane activity, so we also investigate the potential impact of hurricanes on calf, juvenile and adult survival. Photo-ID data confirmed the existence of a core adult population with relatively high site fidelity in South Abaco, but also evidence of transient animals. Estimated annual birth rate was 0.278 (95% CI: 0.241–0.337). We found strong support for a decline in apparent survival for all age-classes. Estimated survival declined by 9% in adults (0.941 in 1998, to 0.855 in 2013), 5% in juveniles (0.820 in 2000, to 0.767 in 2013) and 36% in calves (0.970 in 1997, to 0.606 in 2013). Evidence that survival was influenced by repeated hurricane activity leading to increased mortality and/or emigration was stronger for calves and juveniles than for adults. PVA simulations of an assumed isolated South Abaco population showed that declines would lead to extinction within decades, even under the most optimistic scenario. Future work should focus on establishing if South Abaco is part of natural source–sink metapopulation dynamics on Little Bahama Bank by assessing trends in abundance in local populations and establishing how they interact; this will be important for assessing their conservation status in a potentially increasingly changing environment.

Population parameters and heterogeneity in survival rates of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in a heavily urbanized coastal region of southeast China: implications for conservation

“…Recent studies have increasingly used mark-recapture techniques for more advanced demographic analyses (e.g., Chan and Karczmarski, 2017;Chen et al, 2018;Zeng et al, 2020;Chan et al, 2022a;Lin et al, 2022;Chan and Karczmarski, 2024). Mark-recapture population modeling techniques not only deliver robust estimates of demographic parameters with considerable accuracy (e.g., Hastings et al, 2011;Pace et al, 2017;Kendall et al, 2019;Oosthuizen et al, 2019a;Schleimer et al, 2019;Bright Ross et al, 2022), but provide also powerful tools to identify the underlying driver(s) of ecological and demographic processes (e.g., Horswill et al, 2014;Oosthuizen et al, 2019b;Coxon et al, 2022;Gabriele et al, 2022;Marneweck et al, 2022;Jordaan et al, 2023) and offer a flexible framework for population monitoring that is both effective and reliable, and applicable across a wide range of taxa and management needs (e.g., Atkinson et al, 2021;Chan et al, 2022b;Goldenberg et al, 2022;Szott et al, 2022;Verborgh et al, 2022).…”

Individual identification and photographic techniques in mammalian ecological and behavioural research—Part 2: Field studies and applications

“…Conservation practitioners use these parameters along with estimates of population numbers and trends to assess the conservation status of species or local populations. Individual photo-ID lends itself very well to generate such estimates through markrecapture techniques (e.g., Lettink and Armstrong 2003), with several representative studies featured in this Special Issue (Braczkowski et al 2022;Chan et al 2022b, c;Coxon et al 2022;Gabriele et al 2022;Marneweck et al 2022;Morris et al 2022;Portas et al 2022). For such analyses to be reliable, however, photo-ID data must conform to a strict set of assumptions; otherwise, the resultant estimates may be biased if these assumptions are not met.…”