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Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting Hong Kong waters are thought to be among the world's most anthropogenically impacted coastal delphinids. We have conducted a 5-year (2010–2014) photo-ID study and performed the first in this region comprehensive mark-recapture analysis applying a suite of open population models and robust design models. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models suggested a significant transient effect and seasonal variation in apparent survival probabilities as result of a fluid movement beyond the study area. Given the spatial restrictions of our study, limited by an administrative border, if emigration was to be considered negligible the estimated survival rate of adults was 0.980. Super-population estimates indicated that at least 368 dolphins used Hong Kong waters as part of their range. Closed robust design models suggested an influx of dolphins from winter to summer and increased site fidelity in summer; and outflux, although less prominent, during summer-winter intervals. Abundance estimates in summer (N = 144–231) were higher than that in winter (N = 87–111), corresponding to the availability of prey resources which in Hong Kong waters peaks during summer months. We point out that the current population monitoring strategy used by the Hong Kong authorities is ill-suited for a timely detection of a population change and should be revised.

Defining demographic and ecological threshold of population persistence can assist in informing conservation management. We undertook such analyses for the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, southeast China. We use adult survival estimates for assessments of population status and annual rate of change. Our estimates indicate that, given a stationary population structure and minimal risk scenario, ~2000 individuals (minimum viable population in carrying capacity, MVP k ) can maintain the population persistence across 40 generations. However, under the current population trend (~2.5% decline/annum), the population is fast approaching its viability threshold and may soon face effects of demographic stochasticity. The population demographic trajectory and the minimum area of critical habitat (MACH) that could prevent stochastic extinction are both highly sensitive to fluctuations in adult survival. For a hypothetical stationary population, MACH should approximate 3000-km 2 . However, this estimate increases four-fold with a 5% increase of adult mortality and exceeds the size of PRD when calculated for the current population status. On the other hand, cumulatively all current MPAs within PRD fail to secure the minimum habitat requirement to accommodate sufficiently viable population size. Our findings indicate that the PRD population is deemed to become extinct unless effective conservation measures can rapidly reverse the current population trend.In conservation science, a thorough status assessment of a population should ideally consider all five IUCN criteria, including the rate of population change (i.e. decline), distribution range, population structure, population size and risk of extinction 1

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabit shallow coastal waters of the Indo-Pacific region including southeast China, with at least 6 putative populations identified to date in Chinese waters. However, the connectivity among these populations has not yet been fully investigated. In the present study, we compared and crossmatched photographic catalogs of individual dolphins collected to date in the Pearl River Delta region, Leizhou Bay, Sanniang Bay, and waters southwest of Hainan Island, a total of 3158 individuals, and found no re-sighting of individual dolphins among the 4 study areas. Furthermore, there was a notable difference in the pigmentation pattern displayed by individuals from these 4 regions. We suggest that this may be a phenotypical expression of fine-scale regional differentiation among humpback dolphin groups, possibly distinct populations. Given the considerable conservation management implications it may carry (e.g. definition of management units), further research is much needed.

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