Investigating Environmental Factors for Locating Mangrove Ex-situ Conservation Zones Using GIS Spatial Techniques and the Logistic Regression Algorithm in Mangrove Forests in Iran

Abstract

Along the coastal strip of tropical and subtropical regions, mangrove forests extend as one of the most productive coastal ecosystems. Iran is considered one of the most western coastal habitats of these communities in Asia. Unfortunately, in recent years, despite their economic and ecological importance, these forests have been threatened mainly due to human activities, which necessitate the need for protecting and developing these ecosystems. Ex-situ conservation, which aims to transfer a species to right place for preservation and development, is one of the most effective ways of protecting these forests. It is obvious that the successful transfer of a species in order to protect it as ex-situ conservation requires a comprehensive environmental assessment. The present paper employs a spatio-statistical methodology to delineate areas enriched with environmental parameters and weather factors necessary to support a mangrove ex-situ conservation plan in Hormozgan Province, Iran. With extensive effort in reviewing the related studies in the literature, we elicted a collection of 14 environmental and weather indicators critical to maintaining mangrove stands in a sustainable ecological environment. For screening the number of indicators to environmental variables with highest importance in our research, we used the Delphi method to quantify expert attitudes in order to develop a suitability index collection. Accordingly, an integrated application of GIS spatial analysis and a logistic regression algorithm were used to build an explicit spatial predictive model that evaluates the targeted area in terms of identified factors, thereby quantifying the potential of suitable zones for locating mangrove ex-situ conservation sites. Predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated based on Kappa index and omission error rate. According to our results, land proneness to a mangrove plantation has a high positive correlation with environmental attributes such as temperature fluctuation, land form, and mean tidal level, and has a negative correlation with slope and wave height. Our results should be considered advantageous for decision makers and planners in the field of mangrove ecosystems.

Landscape Analysis Over 30 Years to Assess the Impact of River Damming On Natural Ecosystem

“…The reason of changes in landscape metrics trends after 2003, increase in CA, MPS, LPI and decrease in LSI and ED, was that the mangroves forest was protected as a national conservation area in 2004 by government and after that human-made mangrove forest increased and barren lands changed to mangrove forest (Petrosian et al, 2016). The shape and height of man-made mangrove forests are utterly different from the natural mangrove forest (Mahmoudi1, Petrosian, Kar, & O. Zakeri, 2014) , and it was clear in the survey field.…”

“…Based on the recent study on sustainability trend of human made mangrove forest in Hormozgan coastal area, unfortunatelly the stability of these forest are very low and classified in highly unstable group (Mahmoudi1 et al, 2014). In this regard, if natural mangrove forest will be decreased with this trend there is no alternative way to support biodiversity and local people (Petrosian et al, 2016).…”

“…In these parts of Iran, natural mangrove forests extend as one of the most productive coastal ecosystems that provide natural nursery habitats for a wide variety of prawns, shrimp, fish, crabs, and other crustaceans. Additionally, the rural community life entirely depends on mangroves services and products, such as supplying fuel-wood, aquatic products, medicinal herbs and fodder for domestic animals (Petrosian, Kar, Ashrafi, & Feghhi, 2016).…”

Aboveground and Belowground Carbon Stocks in Mangrove Ecosystems Along Carigara Bay in Leyte, Philippines

“…These ecosystems are represented by unique forests characterized by highly specialized vegetation and typically under a limiting environment (Walsh 1974). Essentially, mangroves provide various ecosystem services such as habitat for a variety of species, spawning areas of aquatic fauna, maintenance of the marine food chain, provision of food and wood (Petrosian et al 2016;Singh 2020) and even protection from calamities (e.g., typhoons, tsunamis, and storm surges) (Patindol and Casas Jr. 2019). Above all, biogeochemical cycling (e.g., carbon storage) is the most important environmental service provided by mangrove forests (Sitoe et al 2014).…”

Role of Graph Theory to Facilitate Landscape Connectivity: Subdivision of a Harary Graph

“…A growing number of quantitative approaches facilitate measuring and mapping connectivity, which can integrate large amounts of information needed to evaluate connectivity for a given population or species. Th hour is needed to identify an effective approach for maintaining and restoring connectivity [9][10][11][12], and GIS is a valuable technique in this regard [13][14][15][16][17]. A graph represents the landscape as a set of nodes and edges.…”