Inverse modelling of European CH&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations

Bergamaschi, P.; Karstens, Ute; Manning, Alistair J.; Saunois, Marielle; Tsuruta, Aki; Berchet, Antoine; Vermeulen, Alex; Arnold, Tim; Janssens‐Maenhout, Greet; Hammer, Samuel; Levin, Ingeborg; Schmidt, Martina; Ramonet, Michel; Lopez, Morgan; Lavrič, Jošt V.; Aalto, Tuula; Chen, Huilin; Feist, Dietrich G.; Gerbig, Christoph; Haszpra, László; Hermansen, Ove; Manca, Giovanni; Moncrieff, John; Meinhardt, F.; Necki, Jaroslaw; Gałkowski, Michał; O’Doherty, Simon; Paramonova, N. N.; Scheeren, H. A.; Steinbacher, Martin; Dlugokencky, E. J.

doi:10.5194/acp-18-901-2018

Cited by 93 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…the inferred confidence ranges overlap, with the exceptions of September and December. A similar seasonal variability was found by the inversions in the InGOS project (Bergamaschi et al, 2018): among the four systems providing monthly variations, three have a maximum in August, with amplitudes of ≈ 130 to 170 Gg CH 4 over the year (Fig. 8c).…”

Section: Seasonal Variationsmentioning

confidence: 49%

“…Overall, the inferred seasonal variations are likely to be due to agricultural (and for a smaller part, waste) emis- (Bergamaschi et al, 2018). sions superimposed with contributions of the natural sources, which the inversion has had to attribute to one of the available sectors since natural sources were not included in the prior emissions and no new sector could be created by the inversion.…”

Section: Seasonal Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies on national scales for countries about the size of France are not numerous. In European studies, the atmospheric measurement data are mostly provided from national and European surface networks: Henne et al (2016) estimated the Swiss national total of CH 4 emissions; Ganesan et al (2015) examined the CH 4 (and nitrous oxide) emissions in Ireland and the United Kingdom; Bergamaschi et al (2015) and Bergamaschi et al (2018) analysed methane emissions in Europe on the regional or country scales, including France.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How a European network may help with estimating methane emissions on the French national scale

Pison¹,

Saunois²,

Bousquet³

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Methane emissions on the national scale in France in 2012 are inferred by assimilating continuous atmospheric mixing ratio measurements from nine stations of the European network ICOS located in France and surrounding countries. To assess the robustness of the fluxes deduced by our inversion system based on an objectified quantification of uncertainties, two complementary inversion set-ups are computed and analysed: (i) a regional run correcting for the spatial distribution of fluxes in France and (ii) a sectorial run correcting fluxes for activity sectors on the national scale. In addition, our results for the two set-ups are compared with fluxes produced in the framework of the inversion intercomparison exercise of the InGOS project. The seasonal variability in fluxes is consistent between different set-ups, with maximum emissions in summer, likely due to agricultural activity. However, very high monthly posterior uncertainties (up to ≈ 65 to 74 % in the sectorial run in May and June) make it difficult to attribute maximum emissions to a specific sector. On the yearly and national scales, the two inversions range from 3835 to 4050 Gg CH 4 and from 3570 to 4190 Gg CH 4 for the regional and sectorial runs, respectively, consistently with the InGOS products. These estimates are 25 to 55 % higher than the total national emissions from bottom-up approaches (biogeochemical models from natural emissions, plus inventories for anthropogenic ones), consistently pointing at missing or underestimated sources in the inventories and/or in natural sources. More specifically, in the sectorial set-up, agricultural emissions are inferred as 66% larger than estimates reported to the UNFCCC. Uncertainties in the total annual national budget are 108 and 312 Gg CH 4 , i.e, 3 to 8 %, for the regional and sectorial runs respectively, smaller than uncertainties in available bottom-up products, proving the added value of top-down atmospheric inversions. Therefore, even though the surface network used in 2012 does not allow us to fully constrain all regions in France accurately, a regional inversion set-up makes it possible to provide estimates of French methane fluxes with an uncertainty in the total budget of less than 10 % on the yearly timescale. Additional sites deployed since 2012 would help to constrain French emissions on finer spatial and temporal scales and attributing missing emissions to specific sectors.

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Section: Seasonal Variationsmentioning

confidence: 49%

Section: Seasonal Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How a European network may help with estimating methane emissions on the French national scale

Pison¹,

Saunois²,

Bousquet³

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…In Europe, Bergamaschi et al () used data from measurement networks to validate regional emissions, and Wunch et al () used long‐term, ground‐based measurements of atmospheric total column methane abundance by remote sensing, to assess methane emissions from the wide northern European region from Poland to France. Their results implied that the European inventories were likely overestimated.…”

Section: Quantification Of Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methane Mitigation: Methods to Reduce Emissions, on the Path to the Paris Agreement

Nisbet

Fisher

Lowry

et al. 2020

Reviews of Geophysics

184

131

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The atmospheric methane burden is increasing rapidly, contrary to pathways compatible with the goals of the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement. Urgent action is required to bring methane back to a pathway more in line with the Paris goals. Emission reduction from “tractable” (easier to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as the fossil fuel industries and landfills is being much facilitated by technical advances in the past decade, which have radically improved our ability to locate, identify, quantify, and reduce emissions. Measures to reduce emissions from “intractable” (harder to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as agriculture and biomass burning have received less attention and are also becoming more feasible, including removal from elevated‐methane ambient air near to sources. The wider effort to use microbiological and dietary intervention to reduce emissions from cattle (and humans) is not addressed in detail in this essentially geophysical review. Though they cannot replace the need to reach “net‐zero” emissions of CO2, significant reductions in the methane burden will ease the timescales needed to reach required CO2 reduction targets for any particular future temperature limit. There is no single magic bullet, but implementation of a wide array of mitigation and emission reduction strategies could substantially cut the global methane burden, at a cost that is relatively low compared to the parallel and necessary measures to reduce CO2, and thereby reduce the atmospheric methane burden back toward pathways consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

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“…Reported U.K. CH 4 emissions in the early 1990s are a factor of 2 higher than those estimated through inverse modeling for reasons that are not well understood (Brown et al, ). Top‐down estimates in the United States and EU are larger than reported (Bergamaschi et al, ; Turner et al, ), whereas top‐down emissions in China are lower than inventories (Miller et al, ; Thompson et al, ), highlighting that differences are region specific and must be evaluated for each country.…”

Section: Top‐down Source and Sink Estimation At Global And Regional Smentioning

confidence: 92%

Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement

Ganesan

Schwietzke²,

Poulter

et al. 2019

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to keep global average temperature increases well below 2 °C of preindustrial levels in the Year 2100. Vital to its success is achieving a decrease in the abundance of atmospheric methane (CH4), the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. If this reduction is to be achieved, individual nations must make and meet reduction goals in their nationally determined contributions, with regular and independently verifiable global stock taking. Targets for the Paris Agreement have been set, and now the capability must follow to determine whether CH4 reductions are actually occurring. At present, however, there are significant limitations in the ability of scientists to quantify CH4 emissions accurately at global and national scales and to diagnose what mechanisms have altered trends in atmospheric mole fractions in the past decades. For example, in 2007, mole fractions suddenly started rising globally after a decade of almost no growth. More than a decade later, scientists are still debating the mechanisms behind this increase. This study reviews the main approaches and limitations in our current capability to diagnose the drivers of changes in atmospheric CH4 and, crucially, proposes ways to improve this capability in the coming decade. Recommendations include the following: (i) improvements to process‐based models of the main sectors of CH4 emissions—proposed developments call for the expansion of tropical wetland flux measurements, bridging remote sensing products for improved measurement of wetland area and dynamics, expanding measurements of fossil fuel emissions at the facility and regional levels, expanding country‐specific data on the composition of waste sent to landfill and the types of wastewater treatment systems implemented, characterizing and representing temporal profiles of crop growing seasons, implementing parameters related to ruminant emissions such as animal feed, and improving the detection of small fires associated with agriculture and deforestation; (ii) improvements to measurements of CH4 mole fraction and its isotopic variations—developments include greater vertical profiling at background sites, expanding networks of dense urban measurements with a greater focus on relatively poor countries, improving the precision of isotopic ratio measurements of 13CH4, CH3D, 14CH4, and clumped isotopes, creating isotopic reference materials for international‐scale development, and expanding spatial and temporal characterization of isotopic source signatures; and (iii) improvements to inverse modeling systems to derive emissions from atmospheric measurements—advances are proposed in the areas of hydroxyl radical quantification, in systematic uncertainty quantification through validation of chemical transport models, in the use of source tracers for estimating sector‐level emissions, and in the development of time and space resolved national inventories. These and other recommendations are proposed for...

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Inverse modelling of European CH<sub>4</sub> emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations

Cited by 93 publications

References 61 publications

How a European network may help with estimating methane emissions on the French national scale

How a European network may help with estimating methane emissions on the French national scale

Methane Mitigation: Methods to Reduce Emissions, on the Path to the Paris Agreement

Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement

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