Inundation of Playa Wetlands in the Western Great Plains Relative to Landcover Context

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, conservation design, migratory shorebirds, species distribution models, wintering waterfowl

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“…For example, Bartuszevige et al. () found that playa inundation is largely a result of the precipitation events in the preceding 2 weeks.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

Reese

Skagen

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Detailed methods can be found in Heintzman (2013). Buffers have been used extensively in studies of playa basins for land-use analysis and watershed delineation (Bartuszevige, Paylacky, Burris, & Herbener, 2012;Ramesh et al, 2012;Collins et al, 2014). The distance of 300 m was chosen to eliminate overlap in study playa buffers (which would confound spatial independence of samples), and is also noted as being a threshold for dispersal for many odonates, including E. civile (Bick & Bick, 1963;Moore, 1954).…”

Section: Impervious Surface Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local and landscape influences on PAH contamination in urban stormwater

McIntyre

Anderson²,

Carr

2015

Landscape and Urban Planning

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“…Sediment removal is a difficult and costly task but is currently the only effective means of sedimentation remediation [7]. Prevention (e.g., via grass buffers) can be effective [70], but vegetation that blocks sediment flow also blocks and absorbs water, reducing the probability of inundation, water volume, and hydroperiod length [64,[66][67][68][69]. Playas in urban areas were generally clear, especially those in grassy parks (although they may experience other reductions in water quality).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A 100-m buffer has been used in several playa studies, largely because the density of playas precludes use of larger buffers without experiencing extensive buffer overlap and thus lack of spatial data independence [17,57,64]. Playa basins or buffers that fell on the scene boundary were included in their entirety.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Remotely Sensed Imagery to Document How Land Use Drives Turbidity of Playa Waters in Texas

et al. 2016

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Sedimentation (primarily from human land use) is a major threat to runoff-fed wetlands of the Great Plains of North America (playas), but it is unknown how many playas are turbid, how prevalence of turbidity has changed over time, and how turbidity is related to surrounding land use. We used remotely sensed imagery to assess sedimentation in the waters of over 7700 playa basins in Texas on four dates during a 29-year span: 25 July 1986 (a regionally wet time), 3 May 2014 (during drought), 4 June 2014 (after the drought was broken), and 25 July 2015 (one year post-drought). Even on the wettest date examined, 64% of playa basins did not hold water. Turbidity varied over time, was already present in over half of the basins examined in 1986, and prevalence of turbidity was not simply proportional to overall wet playa abundance. There was an increase in total and irrigated cropland in our focal region and a statistically significant association between sedimentation and land use within 100 m of a playa: clear playas were associated with more urban development and pasture/grassland, and turbid playas were surrounded mostly by cropland.

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Inundation of Playa Wetlands in the Western Great Plains Relative to Landcover Context

Cited by 29 publications

References 23 publications

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

Local and landscape influences on PAH contamination in urban stormwater

Using Remotely Sensed Imagery to Document How Land Use Drives Turbidity of Playa Waters in Texas

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