Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

Abstract

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, conservation design, migratory shorebirds, species distribution models, wintering waterfowl

Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

“…The usage of GCMs in our study was not completely consistent with the recent studies. Reese and Skagen [77] recently projected shorebird probabilities of occurrence using the RCP 8.5 climate scenario which was based on five GCMs and the ensemble of the GCMs. They assessed the difference of shorebird probabilities of occurrence among five GCMs because the General Circulation Models (GCMs) had intrinsic differences due to their structure or parameter schemes even under the same emission scenario [17].…”

Seasonal occurrence and abundance of dabbling ducks across the continental United States: Joint spatio‐temporal modelling for the Genus Anas

“…Species distribution models are valuable tools in waterfowl ecology and have been broadly applied in assessing assessing waterfowl vulnerability to climate change (Reese & Skagen, ; Sofaer et al, ; Steen, Skagen, & Noon, ), delimiting endangered waterfowl ranges (Pickett et al, ; Si et al, ; Zeng et al, ) and in waterfowl habitat conservation prioritization (Barker, Cumming, & Darveau, ; Johnston et al, ; Runge, Martin, Possingham, Willis, & Fuller, ). Species distribution models have also been incorporated into a host of epidemiological studies, including those aimed at appraising the role of migratory waterfowl in global transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza among wild bird populations and to domestic poultry (Belkhiria, Hijmans, Boyce, Crossley, & Martínez‐López, ; Martin et al, ; Prosser et al, , , ; Russell, ; Takekawa et al, ).…”

Temporal Migration Shifts in the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) Across North America

“…For example, western areas of the Prairie Pothole Region in North and South Dakota, USA, are expected to become drier in the future (Johnson et al 2010). Collectively, the changes in climate regimes and human land use will result in shifts in the distribution and availability of food and habitat resources, as well as overall habitat connectivity (McIntyre et al 2014;Reese and Skagen 2017), across the AWBP's migration route. (Wauchope et al 2017).…”