Introducing Lightning Threat Messaging Using the GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB Composite

Abstract

In 2001, the National Weather Service (NWS) began a Lightning Safety Awareness Campaign to reduce lightning-related fatalities in the United States. Although fatalities have decreased 41% since the campaign began, lightning still poses a significant threat to public safety as the majority of victims have little or no warning of cloud-to-ground lightning. This suggests it would be valuable to message the threat of lightning before it occurs, especially to NWS core partners that have the responsibility to protect large numbers of people. During the summer of 2018, a subset of forecasters from the Jacksonville, Florida, NWS Weather Forecast Office investigated if messaging the threat of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in developing convection was possible. Based on previous CG lightning forecasting research, forecasters incorporated new high-resolution Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction red–green–blue (RGB) composite imagery with Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor isothermal reflectivity and total lightning data to determine if there was enough confidence to message the threat of CG lightning before it occurred. This paper will introduce the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB composite, show how it can add value for short-term lightning forecasting, and provide an operational example illustrating how fusing these datasets together may be able to provide confidence and extend the lead time when messaging the threat of cloud-to-ground lightning before it occurs.

Extrapolating shortwave geostationary satellite imagery of clouds into nighttime using longwave observations

“…The importance of channel 11 likely lies in its ability to discern cloud top phase, in which channels 5 and 6 are especially sensitive. 19,21 The importance of channel 16 is consistent with its importance to derived cloud products such as cloud top height due to its ability to discern upper-troposphere features. 19,[32][33][34][35] Individually, channels 13, 14, and 15 are each less important than channels 11 and 16 likely because these three channels are all very similar, just with varying sensitivities to water vapor.…”

“…The central wavelengths for all 16 ABI channels are listed in Table 1 along with common nicknames and brief descriptions of each channel's application(s). 7,[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35] Since this work is primarily motivated by inferring and visualizing cloud properties in SW data, we do not attempt to extrapolate SW reflectance in clear sky conditions. The extrapolation method presented could be applied to clear sky conditions but would likely have different optimal parameters and error characteristics than those presented herein.…”

“…Table 1 List of ABI channels, their central wavelengths, common nicknames, applications, and use in the final extrapolation algorithm. 7,[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35] Channel (band) number 7 Central wavelength (μm) 7 Common nickname 19 Common application(s) 19,[32][33][34][35] The precise times of observations are all within 10 min of the top of the hour. The subsolar points at 1500, 1700, 1800, and 2100 UTC on the 2018 autumnal equinox are shown in Fig.…”

Using NOAA Satellite Imagery to Detect and Track Hazardous Sea Spray in the High Latitudes

“…While the feature can be diagnosed within a single image, the viewing of successive images introduces another dimension to the imagery that improves overall understanding of the scene. This method of imagery analysis is commonplace for operational forecasters in order to identify a given atmospheric feature or trend (Line et al 2016;Lindley et al 2016;Elsenheimer et al 2019).…”

Environmental Analysis of Warm-Season First Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Events over the Western Florida Peninsula

“…Curran et al (2000) produced a 35-yr (1959-94) U.S. lightning casualty climatology and reported Florida as having the most fatalities (345) and injuries (1178) of any state. During 1959-2019(NWS 2021a, Florida (509 deaths) had more than twice the lightning-related fatalities of the next highest state (Texas, 231 deaths). Although annual lightning-related fatalities have decreased nationwide (NWS 2021a), Florida still regularly leads the United States each year.…”