No abstract

A new paradigm for the resiliency of tropical cyclone (TC) vortices in vertical shear flow is presented. To elucidate the basic dynamics, the authors follow previous work and consider initially barotropic vortices on an f plane. It is argued that the diabatically driven secondary circulation of the TC is not directly responsible for maintaining the vertical alignment of the vortex. Rather, an inviscid damping mechanism intrinsic to the dry adiabatic dynamics of the TC vortex suppresses departures from the upright state. Recent work has demonstrated that tilted quasigeostrophic vortices consisting of a core of positive vorticity surrounded by a skirt of lesser positive vorticity align through projection of the tilt asymmetry onto vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) and their subsequent damping (VRW damping). This work is extended here to the finite Rossby number (Ro) regime characteristic of real TCs. It is shown that the VRW damping mechanism provides a direct means of reducing the tilt of intense cyclonic vortices (Ro Ͼ 1) in unidirectional vertical shear. Moreover, intense TC-like, but initially barotropic, vortices are shown to be much more resilient to vertical shearing than previously believed. For initially upright, observationally based TC-like vortices in vertical shear, the existence of a ''downshear-left'' tilt equilibrium is demonstrated when the VRW damping is nonnegligible. On the basis of these findings, the axisymmetric component of the diabatically driven secondary circulation is argued to contribute indirectly to vortex resiliency against shear by increasing Ro and enhancing the radial gradient of azimuthal-mean potential vorticity. This, in addition to the reduction of static stability in moist ascent regions, increases the efficiency of the VRW damping mechanism.

This paper is the second part of a study on the dynamics of nonhydrostatic perturbations to dry, balanced, atmospheric vortices modeled after tropical cyclones. In Part I, the stability and evolution of asymmetric perturbations were presented. This part is devoted to the stability and evolution of symmetric perturbationsparticularly those that are induced by the wave-mean flow interactions of asymmetric perturbations with the symmetric basic-state vortex.The linear model shows that the vortices considered in Part I are stable to symmetric perturbations. Furthermore, the model can be used to derive the steady, symmetric response to stationary symmetric forcing, similar to the results from quasi-balanced dynamics as originally presented by Eliassen. The secondary circulations that develop act to oppose the effects of the forcing, but also to warm the core and intensify the vortex. The model is also used to simulate the response to impulsive symmetric forcings, that is, symmetric perturbations. Much like the asymmetries considered in Part I, symmetric perturbations go through two kinds of adjustment: a fast adjustment that generates gravity waves, and then a slow adjustment leading to a final state that represents a net change in both the wind and mass fields of the symmetric vortex.The nonhydrostatic, unsteady, symmetric response of the tropical-storm-like vortex to the evolving asymmetries from Part I is presented. In contrast with results from previous studies with initially two-dimensional or balanced asymmetric vorticity perturbations, asymmetric temperature perturbations are found to have a negative effect on overall intensity. These changes are about two orders of magnitude smaller than those caused by symmetric perturbations of equal amplitude. The asymmetric/symmetric adjustment process for purely asymmetric temperature perturbations are also simulated with a fully nonlinear, compressible model. Excellent agreement is found between the linear, nonhydrostatic and the nonlinear, compressible models. The vortex intensification caused by a localized, impulsive thermal perturbation can be accurately estimated from the projection of this perturbation onto the purely symmetric motions.

The main purpose of the present study is to assess the value of synthetic satellite imagery as a tool for model evaluation performance in addition to more traditional approaches. For this purpose, synthetic GOES-10 imagery at 10.7 μm was produced using output from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) numerical model. Use of synthetic imagery is a unique method to indirectly evaluate the performance of various microphysical schemes available within the ARW-WRF. In the present study, a simulation of an atmospheric river event that occurred on 30 December 2005 was used. The simulations were performed using the ARW-WRF numerical model with five different microphysical schemes [Lin, WRF single-moment 6 class (WSM6), Thompson, Schultz, and double-moment Morrison]. Synthetic imagery was created and scenes from the simulations were statistically compared with observations from the 10.7-μm band of the GOES-10 imager using a histogram-based technique. The results suggest that synthetic satellite imagery is useful in model performance evaluations as a complementary metric to those used traditionally. For example, accumulated precipitation analyses and other commonly used fields in model evaluations suggested a good agreement among solutions from various microphysical schemes, while the synthetic imagery analysis pointed toward notable differences in simulations of clouds among the microphysical schemes.

In a previous paper, the authors discussed the dynamics of an instability that occurs in inviscid, axisymmetric, two-dimensional vortices possessing a low-vorticity core surrounded by a high-vorticity annulus. Hurricanes, with their low-vorticity cores (the eye of the storm), are naturally occurring examples of such vortices. The instability is for asymmetric perturbations of azimuthal wavenumber-one about the vortex, and grows in amplitude as t 1/2 for long times, despite the fact that there can be no exponentially growing wavenumber-one instabilities in inviscid, two-dimensional vortices. This instability is further studied in three fluid flow models: with highresolution numerical simulations of two-dimensional flow, for linearized perturbations in an equivalent shallowwater vortex, and in a three-dimensional, baroclinic, hurricane-like vortex simulated with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model. The instability is found to be robust in all of these physical models. Interestingly, the algebraic instability becomes an exponential instability in the shallow-water vortex, though the structures of the algebraic and exponential modes are nearly identical. In the three-dimensional baroclinic vortex, the instability quickly leads to substantial inner-core vorticity redistribution and mixing. The instability is associated with a displacement of the vortex center (as defined by either minimum pressure or streamfunction) that rotates around the vortex core, and thus offers a physical mechanism for the persistent, small-amplitude trochoidal wobble often observed in hurricane tracks. The instability also indicates that inner-core vorticity mixing will always occur in such vortices, even when the more familiar higher-wavenumber barotropic instabilities are not supported.