Interregional Migration and Thresholds: Evidence from Spain

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of labor market conditions in the origin and the destination on interregional migration in Spain, over the period 1988-2010. A basic theoretical framework is developed and the implications of the model suggest that the effect of labor market conditions on migration can vary, depending on a certain threshold. In a second step, the implications of the model are tested with Spanish data, using a new approach based on the presence of thresholds. We show that interregional migration can be explained by labor market fundamentals if the expected wage gap between the origin and the destination is below an endogenously determinate value.JEL Code: R23, C20, J61

What Drives Migration Moves Across Urban Areas in Spain? Evidence from the Great Recession

“…As in Clemente et al (2016), we differentiate three cohorts: 18 to 30, 30 to 60, and above 60. Table 3 displays the results of these new estimates.…”

“…Later works analysing more recent flows, such as Maza and Villaverde (2004) and Maza (2006), acknowledge the influence of regional income in the decision to move. In addition, Juárez (2000) and Watson (2009, 2010) obtain that unemployment differentials are also relevant factors, whereas Clemente et al (2016) observe that labour market factors play a substantial role if the economic situation in the origin region is relatively unfavourable. Works focused on micro data, such as Antolín and Bover (1997), include a variety of personal characteristics in the analysis.…”

“…Although some articles consider count models using the number of migrants between origin and destination (Devillanova and García Fontés, 2004;Reher and Silvestre, 2009;Faggian and Royuela, 2010), most of the literature considers linear models in which the dependent variable is the migration rate or the log of migrants (recently, Clemente et al, 2016). Other works use micro data, analysing the propensity to migrate (Bover and Arellano, 2002;Reher and Silvestre, 2009).…”

“…The recent literature analysing migration flows also considers heterogeneous groups. Maza et al (2013) and Clemente et al (2016), among others, analyse flows of Spanish born versus foreigners. Overall, the selectivity of migrants and the heterogeneity of flows have been labelled as a key factor in explaining population flows.…”

Raising the Bar (3)

“…The paper by Clemente et al (2016, in this issue) addresses another interesting topic and suggests a two-regime gravity-type model to assess the effect of labour market conditions on interregional migration flows. It first develops a simple theoretical model that predicts that differences in labour conditions between the origin and destination regions matter only when they are large enough.…”